Analyze: When the bull market ends? 4 indicators.

Short answer: Nobody knows! This is not financial advice.

Long answer: Nobody knows, but there are some indications. Still not financial advice.

1 / Market cycle duration

First bitcoin cycle was around 15 months. Second one was 36 months. Third one was 48 months. So, you could conclude as market cap grows, each cycle becomes slower at accumulating more capital. So far, this cycle has been 26 months from the bottom. If the trend is going to continue, this cycle still has a lot to offer.

2 / Market cap peak trendline

If we draw the trendlines from previous cycles (chart by Peter Brandt CEO of Factor LLC), it seems that we still have room before reaching the peak area. This trendline is based on very few data points, but if the market is going to behave the same way, it appears that we are in in the middle of the current cycle. Watch this video for more info.

3 / Ratio between long-term holders to short-term holders.

In simple terms, in the last bull-markets short-term holders increased and long-term holders decreased to certain levels when we approached the end of market cycle. In this chart you can see this ratio (and the mathematics behind it), going to red area indicates that we are near the end of cycle.

4 / Stock to flow model

For 'store of value' commodities there has been a useful model which has predicted the value of assets like gold and silver. Since bitcoin behaves similarly, it has been successful at predicting bitcoin too. Each time the real price deviated from the model; it went back to it. Right know we are very close to the model’s prediction, which could indicate a rather “fair value”.

In the end, it has been always said “all models are wrong, some are useful”. Market is unpredictable, there is a big chance non of this happens. But if we are to guess, this bull market doesn't seem to be finished yet.