Here’s a little secret. The market didn’t dip because of the Indian news. Don’t fall into the trap of trying to find a narrative for every dip.
For veterans of this market, you've probably seen this movie before so many times. Heard all the stories, and heard all the excuses. From an April fools joke that was supposed to have caused the price to rise, to the old classic Chinese New Year.
Let's dissect this one :
The news story of the Indian government seriously considering a ban on crypto, broke out at the end of January.
The initial story didn't cause much of a dent.
With the same story breaking out again, there's a better chance now that it's priced in already, or at least partially priced in. Maybe some people were still waiting for more confirmation. But in the world of trading, you typically don't wait for the news, you buy or sell on the rumor.
The second story hit the media between 7pm-9pm ET yesterdy:
This came after we hit that $61K peak the day before. And as it can be expected, when we break a landmark price like 60K for the first time, that quickly, there's a chance of an initial retreat.
The price started to slip, long before the story broke out.
You can see several retests failing, and things getting worse. And in the circle, the time the news broke out.
When the news broke, the market actually went up. Why would the market go up, if the story is so devastating and people think it will have an impact?
Probably because at this point, the market was ignoring the news, and more concerned with what was actually happening to the price. But at this point, that fate was already sealed.
And I'm not even sure the Indian story even increased the dip. If you look historically, we've had very similar situations with no news to blame. In fact you don't need to look that far.
Look at what happened when we first broke $40K:
Fundamentals aren't the only thing. Investors are also interested at what the price is actually doing, and what's really happening to the market itself.
submitted by /u/fan_of_hakiksexydays