Author: dfmines

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Real Vision Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts has sounded a stark warning for Bitcoin in the months ahead. Citing his new Bitcoin Derivatives Risk Score (DRS) model, Coutts contends the leading cryptocurrency’s price faces one of two sharp outcomes: a severe downturn or a surge to new all-time highs (ATH). Bitcoin’s Q2 Outlook In commentary shared via X today, Coutts highlights his “first pass” at the DRS model, noting that the market’s most recent instance of “Cat 5 euphoria” in Q1 2024 was followed by a pullback of only around 30%. He contrasts this with a comparable episode in 2019, which saw a 50% decline—widening to 70% if the COVID shock is accounted for. Related Reading: Bitcoin Under Threat? Analyst Explores Two Bearish Black Swan Scenarios to Watch “Looking back at Q1 2024’s Cat 5 euphoria—which I flagged back then (in February 2024)—I’m still surprised the pullback was only -30%. The only similar move outside a cycle top was in 2019, with a 50% drop (70% if you factor in the COVID shock),” he explains. Coutts emphasizes that 2019 is a better barometer for current market conditions than 2021. The rationale, he observes, is that the 2019 rally preceded a major global liquidity expansion. By 2021, Bitcoin had already appreciated 12x off its lows while worldwide liquidity grew by 30%, reflecting a vastly different macro environment. Related Reading: The Fed Blinked — The Bitcoin Bull Run Return Is Now Inevitable Assessing the market’s present risk level, Coutts points out that Bitcoin’s DRS metric has slid into the “low-risk quantile,” a zone he says offers minimal predictive power for future prices. “So, where are we now? Bitcoin’s DRS is in the low-risk quantile—where predictive power is low. If Bitcoin has peaked, we should expect a brutal bleed lower,” he cautions, before adding that the possibility of a rebound remains high. Global Liquidity On The Rise Coutts then underscores global liquidity’s potential to trigger another Bitcoin rally. He believes an upcoming inflection point in global liquidity—driven by the need to stimulate heavily indebted economies—will likely fuel the derivatives market, which he calculates to be four times bigger than the spot market. “That’s not my outlook though. Global liquidity is ready to inflect that will re-invigorate the derivatives market (4x Spot), potentially jettisoning Bitcoin to new ATHs by May (or end of Q2 for extra padding).” Another key insight from Coutts centers on the Global Liquidity Index, which he says has been in contraction for an unprecedented stretch. “This marks the longest contraction of the Global Liquidity Index in Bitcoin’s history—three years and counting (measured from the peak). Previous tightening episodes (2014–2016 and 2018–2019) lasted < 2yrs. How much longer will this go on?” He argues that a renewed injection of liquidity is inevitable, pointing out that governments—especially those with debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 100%—would be hard-pressed to refinance if nominal GDP lags behind rising interest costs. “The fiat, fractional-reserve, debt-based system will implode without liquidity injections. The spice must flow.” At press time, BTC traded at $87,703. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Trump Media has signed a non-binding agreement with Crypto.com to launch a series of exchange-traded funds in the US.Trump Technology Group Corp (TMTG) — the operator of the social media platform Truth Social and fintech brand Truth.Fi — is also part of the agreement, which is subject to regulatory approval, according to a March 24 statement from Trump Media. The parties plan to launch the ETFs later this year through Crypto.com’s broker-dealer, Foris Capital US LLC. The ETFs will consist of digital assets and securities with a “Made in America” focus.Crypto.com will provide the infrastructure and custody services to supply the cryptocurrencies for the ETFs, which may include a basket of tokens, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP) and Cronos (CRO).The parties involved expect the ETFs to be widely available internationally, including in the US, Europe and Asia across existing brokerage platforms.”Once launched, these ETFs will be available on the Crypto.com App for our more than 140 million users around the world,” Crypto.com co-founder and CEO Kris Marszalek said.The ETFs are anticipated to launch alongside a slate of Truth.Fi Separately Managed Accounts (SMA), which TMTG also plans to invest in with its cash reserves.Source: Kris MarszalekRelated: Who’s running in Trump’s race to make US a ‘Bitcoin superpower?’The potential ETF launch would mark yet another crypto-related endeavor involving US President Donald Trump.However, Democratic lawmakers say that conflicts of interest have already arisen between Trump’s presidential duties and the Trump Organization’s ownership of the crypto platform, World Liberty Financial, in addition to the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin that launched three days before he was inaugurated.House Representative Gerald Connolly recently referred to the TRUMP token as a “money grab” that has allowed Trump-linked entities to cash in on over $100 million worth of trading fees. Democrat Maxine Waters also criticized Trump’s memecoin on Jan. 20, referring to it as a rug pull that represented the “worst of crypto.”Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

Mario De Marco, Anderson Leme, and Rodrigo Quaresma, Federal Revenue agents, talked about the possibility of seizing bitcoin from travelers in Brazil. During a podcast, the agents clarified that they could confiscate digital assets from travelers only if there is a pending investigation involving these bitcoin. Leme stated that the current regulation did not mention […]

Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), a financial zone with over $635 billion in assets under management, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Chainlink in a move to connect the world of traditional finance with blockchain data.The agreement will allow ADGM to use Chainlink’s suite of tools, such as data feeds and interoperability technology, ADGM said in a March 24 announcement. The partnership also aims to encourage further discussion around blockchain, artificial intelligence, and other emerging technologies in the region.ADGM, which opened in 2015, is in the United Arab Emirates’ financial free zone. It operates under its own civil and commercial legal system, based on English Common Law. Designed to bolster Abu Dhabi’s status as a financial hub, ADGM plays a central role in attracting global firms and expanding the city’s financial services sector.By the end of 2024, ADGM hosted 134 asset and fund managers overseeing 166 funds. The total number of financial institutions operating within its jurisdiction rose to 275, with 79 new firms, including prominent names such as BlackRock, PGIM, and Morgan Stanley.Related: What is Chainlink, and how does it work?UAE sees rising crypto adoptionMultiple metrics show that cryptocurrency adoption in the UAE is rising, aided by government openness to the emerging technology. The country saw a 41% increase in crypto app downloads in 2024 from 2023, and it ranked third out of 28 countries in the Henley Crypto Adoption Index 2024.Abu Dhabi in particular has been a hot spot for crypto firms. In December 2024, the ADGM Financial Services Regulatory Authority officially recognized Tether’s USDT (USDT) stablecoin as an accepted virtual asset, paving the way for the cryptocurrency’s integration into the local financial ecosystem.On March 12, Binance announced that MGX, an Abu Dhabi-based investment firm, had invested $2 billion into the exchange, one of the largest funding deals in the industry’s history.Dubai, another Emirate in the UAE, has also shown itself open to cryptocurrency businesses. In February, Dubai approved USDC (USDC) and EURC as the first two stablecoins under its regime.Magazine: X Hall of Flame: ChainLinkGod was in High School when he started the account! 

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The Donald Trump-backed crypto venture World Liberty Financial launched a US dollar-pegged stablecoin with a total supply of more than $3.5 million.According to data from Etherscan and BscScan, the project launched the World Liberty Financial USD (USD1) token in early March. Former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao noted the project’s smart contract was deployed on the BNB Chain and Ethereum, while World Liberty said the stablecoin was “not currently tradeable.”The USD1 stablecoin launch comes as US lawmakers consider passing the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, or GENIUS, Act. The bill moved out of the Senate Banking Committee on March 13 and is expected to be taken up for a full floor vote soon. Bo Hines, the executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, said he expected the GENIUS bill on Trump’s desk by June.Former Binance CEO acknowledging the USD1 launch. Source: Changpeng ZhaoSince the launch of the platform in September 2024, many aspects of World Liberty’s intentions have been shrouded in secrecy. The project’s website notes that the US President and some of his family members control 60% of the company’s equity interests. As of March 14, World Liberty has completed two public token sales, netting the company a combined $550 million. The launch of the stablecoin on the BNB Chain came amid reports that the Trump family held talks with Binance about acquiring a stake in the crypto exchange and separately granting a presidential pardon to Zhao. CZ has denied reports of a deal between Binance.US and Trump and a pardon.Conflicts of interest in Trump’s crypto ventures? Before the project’s first public token sale in October 2024, World Liberty faced scrutiny from US policymakers, accusing Trump of conflicts of interest while running for office. Days after Trump won the US presidential election, Tron Founder Justin Sun announced he would invest $30 million in World Liberty, likely leading to his position as an adviser to the firm. After Trump took office on Jan. 20 and Commissioner Mark Uyeda began leading the US Securities and Exchange Commission as acting chair, the regulator asked a federal court to pause its case against Sun “to explore a potential resolution.” Sun and three of his companies faced allegations from the SEC of selling unregistered securities. Other executives at crypto companies who backed Trump and Republicans in the 2024 elections — some with financial contributions — including from Coinbase and Ripple, have since seen their SEC enforcement actions dropped under Uyeda. Related: Trump becomes first US sitting president to speak at a crypto conferenceWorld Liberty’s launch comes as the stablecoin market continues to grow. Online analytics platforms Artemis and Dune showed that the number of active stablecoin wallets increased by more than 50% from February 2024 to February 2025. The total market capitalization of stablecoins also surpassed $200 billion in January, with Tether (USDT) and USDC remaining two of the most popular ones on the market.Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

According to several reports, Toulouse became the first city in France to accept bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for subway and public transport payments starting March 17, 2025, as part of a broader initiative to modernize transit systems. Europe’s First: Toulouse Metro Adopts Bitcoin Payments Toulouse’s public transport operator, Tisséo, launched cryptocurrency payments for metro, bus, […]