Author: dfmines

submitted by /u/giugiacaglia [link] [comments]

Bitcoin’s tight correlation with global M2 has returned to the spotlight, suggesting that broader monetary conditions remain a key force behind the cryptocurrency’s market trajectory. Recent price action shows Bitcoin converging with M2’s downward drift—mirroring roughly a 70-day lag. This cyclical movement highlights Bitcoin’s ongoing responsiveness to fluctuations in liquidity, even as other fundamental factors, like the newly announced US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), continue to capture headlines. Global M2 Correlation And Bitcoin Market Inefficiency In his latest research note, analyst Joe Consorti underscores that “Bitcoin’s directional correlation with global M2 has tightened again,” indicating that price remains heavily swayed by money supply trends. After a few months of divergence—fueled in part by a strong US dollar—Bitcoin fell to $78,000, coming within $8,000 of M2’s projected path. The global M2 index has softened, partly reflecting the dollar’s robust performance. Despite that drag, Bitcoin appears to be following the general liquidity blueprint it has tracked throughout this cycle, suggesting Bitcoin’s price still hinges on major macro forces like central bank expansions and contractions. “While this relationship isn’t a direct cause-and-effect mechanism, it continues to provide a useful macro framework,” Consorti writes. He added: “The takeaway? Bitcoin remains the ultimate monetary asset in a world where money supply, balance sheet capacity, and credit are perpetually expanding. As global money supply expands, bitcoin tends to follow it, at least directionally. But this cycle is seeing additional variables that make M2 a less reliable standalone indicator, such as the US dollar being historically strong, creating a drag on global M2 denominated in USD, and more accurate measures of money supply and liquidity coming onto the scene.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom Confirmed? Data Shows 87.5% Chance The Worst Is Over Although macro conditions are exerting familiar pressure, the market’s reaction to the SBR announcement has been perplexing. After the US President Donald Trump formally declared plans to accumulate Bitcoin through a “budget-neutral” mechanism, the price tumbled 8.5% in just under a week. Consorti described the sell-off as “an irrational reaction highlighting major inefficiencies in pricing Bitcoin’s geopolitical importance.” Executive Order 14233 mandates Treasury and Commerce officials to grow America’s BTC holdings—currently at 198,109 BTC—without new taxpayer cost or congressional oversight. This is a stark contrast to previous government-level adoptions, such as El Salvador’s legal tender move, which coincided with a surge in Bitcoin’s price. Consorti attributes the disparity to short-term profit taking and a “sell-the-news” mentality, adding that “the magnitude of the selloff indicates a complete failure to price in the long-term implications.” Despite the SBR-related dip, Bitcoin’s technical signals suggest a possible local bottom forming. The cryptocurrency dipped to $77,000 before bouncing back, filling a low-volume gap in the $76,000–$86,000 range. Buyers seized on the retracement, creating two hammer candlesticks on the weekly chart. Related Reading: Bitcoin Teeters On The Edge: Will This Pivot Hold Or Collapse? Hammer candlesticks typically point to a reversal, especially when they appear at cycle-defining support levels. According to Consorti, “Historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin forms these patterns at cycle turning points… The last time we saw this exact price structure was during the tail end of Bitcoin’s summer 2024 consolidation, two months before it surged from $57,000 to $108,000.” A notable trend amid these price fluctuations is Bitcoin’s rising dominance, even during periods of market contraction. ETH/BTC recently sank to 0.0227—its lowest since May 2020—indicating intensifying skepticism toward altcoins. Meanwhile, institutional demand for Ethereum has likewise slumped, as evidenced by a 56.8% drop in the asset under management (AUM) ratio for Ethereum vs. Bitcoin. “This cycle belongs to Bitcoin, and all future cycles will only further cement this reality,” Consorti asserts. He suggests altcoins are fighting an uphill battle as Bitcoin-centric narratives gain global traction. At press time, BTC traded at $82,875. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The odds of a recession are rising, markets are crashing and President Donald Trump is forging ahead with tariffs.This volatile playbook is eerily similar to Trump’s first term, which started with a bang before giving way to one of the biggest bull markets in recent history. However, this time, Trump seems to have dropped the stock market as one of his favorite barometers of success, opting instead to focus on the long-term health of the US economy. Trump has promised to usher in America’s next “Golden Age,” but before that happens, the economy might need a painful dose of medicine. There is growing speculation that Trump is purposely stoking growth fears and crashing the market to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.It might sound crazy, but there may be a method to Trump’s apparent madness. A coordinated crashFor decades, there was an unspoken rule in Washington that the president must remain tight-lipped about Fed policy. However, Trump threw that convention out the window when he publicly stated that the Fed should consult the president on interest rates. In February, Trump took to social media to say, “Interest Rates should be lowered.” When the central bank refused to play ball, the Trump administration took matters “into their own hands [by] crashing asset prices in an attempt to force Jerome Powell to cut interest rates,” according to entrepreneur and market commentator Anthony Pompliano.Pompliano and others say the Trump administration is intentionally crashing the stock market to bring borrowing costs down before the US government needs to refinance $7 trillion in debt over the next six months.The plan appears to be working, with the 10-year yield plunging nearly 60 basis points from its peak earlier this year. While the Fed isn’t expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting in March, the odds of a May cut are now above 50%. Source: Alex KrugerRecession odds spike to 40%: JPMorganThe crypto and stock market sell-off on March 10 was largely driven by fears that the US economy was barreling toward a recession. Those fears were echoed in the bond market, with the 10-year yield plunging to the lowest level since Trump was elected. Against this backdrop, analysts at JPMorgan have upped their odds of a recession this year to 40% from 30%. Growing recession odds crash the crypto market. Source: CoinMarketCap“We see a material risk that the US falls into recession this year owing to extreme US policies,” the analysts said.Goldman Sachs economists also worry that Trump’s trade war could plunge the US economy into a sharp downturn. They raised their 12-month recession odds to 20% from 15%. According to Goldman, the outlook could worsen if the Trump administration remains steadfast in its policies “even in the face of much worse data.”BlackRock’s BUIDL enters DeFiReal-world asset (RWA) tokenization company Securitize has selected RedStone to provide data feeds for its tokenized products, which include BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL). With the partnership, Securitize’s funds can now be used across DeFi products, including Morpho, Compound and Spark. This could expand BUIDL’s use cases into money market exchanges and collateralized DeFi platforms.BlackRock’s BUIDL is the world’s largest tokenized Treasury fund, reaching $500 million in assets under management in less than four months. It was launched on the Ethereum network and can be accessed through Securitize. The fund invests all of its assets in cash, US Treasury bills and repurchase agreements. Staking ETH?Cboe BZX, a leading securities exchange headquartered in Chicago, is seeking approval from US regulators to add staking into Fidelity’s Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund.According to a March 11 filing, Cboe is proposing a rule change that would allow the Fidelity Ethereum fund to “stake, or cause to be staked, all or a portion of the Trust’s Ether through one or more trusted staking providers.”Staking could potentially boost the appeal of Ether ETFs by giving investors access to yields. In February, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged more than a dozen crypto-related ETF filings. Recognizing the SEC’s regulatory pivot since President Trump’s inauguration, Cboe is attempting to strike while the iron is hot. Crypto Biz is your weekly pulse on the business behind blockchain and crypto, delivered directly to your inbox every Thursday.

The odds of a recession are rising, markets are crashing and President Donald Trump is forging ahead with tariffs.This volatile playbook is eerily similar to Trump’s first term, which started with a bang before giving way to one of the biggest bull markets in recent history. However, this time, Trump seems to have dropped the stock market as one of his favorite barometers of success, opting instead to focus on the long-term health of the US economy. Trump has promised to usher in America’s next “Golden Age,” but before that happens, the economy might need a painful dose of medicine. There is growing speculation that Trump is purposely stoking growth fears and crashing the market to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.It might sound crazy, but there may be a method to Trump’s apparent madness. A coordinated crashFor decades, there was an unspoken rule in Washington that the president must remain tight-lipped about Fed policy. However, Trump threw that convention out the window when he publicly stated that the Fed should consult the president on interest rates. In February, Trump took to social media to say, “Interest Rates should be lowered.” When the central bank refused to play ball, the Trump administration took matters “into their own hands [by] crashing asset prices in an attempt to force Jerome Powell to cut interest rates,” according to entrepreneur and market commentator Anthony Pompliano.Pompliano and others say the Trump administration is intentionally crashing the stock market to bring borrowing costs down before the US government needs to refinance $7 trillion in debt over the next six months.The plan appears to be working, with the 10-year yield plunging nearly 60 basis points from its peak earlier this year. While the Fed isn’t expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting in March, the odds of a May cut are now above 50%. Source: Alex KrugerRecession odds spike to 40%: JPMorganThe crypto and stock market sell-off on March 10 was largely driven by fears that the US economy was barreling toward a recession. Those fears were echoed in the bond market, with the 10-year yield plunging to the lowest level since Trump was elected. Against this backdrop, analysts at JPMorgan have upped their odds of a recession this year to 40% from 30%. Growing recession odds crash the crypto market. Source: CoinMarketCap“We see a material risk that the US falls into recession this year owing to extreme US policies,” the analysts said.Goldman Sachs economists also worry that Trump’s trade war could plunge the US economy into a sharp downturn. They raised their 12-month recession odds to 20% from 15%. According to Goldman, the outlook could worsen if the Trump administration remains steadfast in its policies “even in the face of much worse data.”BlackRock’s BUIDL enters DeFiReal-world asset (RWA) tokenization company Securitize has selected RedStone to provide data feeds for its tokenized products, which include BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL). With the partnership, Securitize’s funds can now be used across DeFi products, including Morpho, Compound and Spark. This could expand BUIDL’s use cases into money market exchanges and collateralized DeFi platforms.BlackRock’s BUIDL is the world’s largest tokenized Treasury fund, reaching $500 million in assets under management in less than four months. It was launched on the Ethereum network and can be accessed through Securitize. The fund invests all of its assets in cash, US Treasury bills and repurchase agreements. Staking ETH?Cboe BZX, a leading securities exchange headquartered in Chicago, is seeking approval from US regulators to add staking into Fidelity’s Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund.According to a March 11 filing, Cboe is proposing a rule change that would allow the Fidelity Ethereum fund to “stake, or cause to be staked, all or a portion of the Trust’s Ether through one or more trusted staking providers.”Staking could potentially boost the appeal of Ether ETFs by giving investors access to yields. In February, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged more than a dozen crypto-related ETF filings. Recognizing the SEC’s regulatory pivot since President Trump’s inauguration, Cboe is attempting to strike while the iron is hot. Crypto Biz is your weekly pulse on the business behind blockchain and crypto, delivered directly to your inbox every Thursday.

The odds of a recession are rising, markets are crashing and President Donald Trump is forging ahead with tariffs.This volatile playbook is eerily similar to Trump’s first term, which started with a bang before giving way to one of the biggest bull markets in recent history. However, this time, Trump seems to have dropped the stock market as one of his favorite barometers of success, opting instead to focus on the long-term health of the US economy. Trump has promised to usher in America’s next “Golden Age,” but before that happens, the economy might need a painful dose of medicine. There is growing speculation that Trump is purposely stoking growth fears and crashing the market to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.It might sound crazy, but there may be a method to Trump’s apparent madness. A coordinated crashFor decades, there was an unspoken rule in Washington that the president must remain tight-lipped about Fed policy. However, Trump threw that convention out the window when he publicly stated that the Fed should consult the president on interest rates. In February, Trump took to social media to say, “Interest Rates should be lowered.” When the central bank refused to play ball, the Trump administration took matters “into their own hands [by] crashing asset prices in an attempt to force Jerome Powell to cut interest rates,” according to entrepreneur and market commentator Anthony Pompliano.Pompliano and others say the Trump administration is intentionally crashing the stock market to bring borrowing costs down before the US government needs to refinance $7 trillion in debt over the next six months.The plan appears to be working, with the 10-year yield plunging nearly 60 basis points from its peak earlier this year. While the Fed isn’t expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting in March, the odds of a May cut are now above 50%. Source: Alex KrugerRecession odds spike to 40%: JPMorganThe crypto and stock market sell-off on March 10 was largely driven by fears that the US economy was barreling toward a recession. Those fears were echoed in the bond market, with the 10-year yield plunging to the lowest level since Trump was elected. Against this backdrop, analysts at JPMorgan have upped their odds of a recession this year to 40% from 30%. Growing recession odds crash the crypto market. Source: CoinMarketCap“We see a material risk that the US falls into recession this year owing to extreme US policies,” the analysts said.Goldman Sachs economists also worry that Trump’s trade war could plunge the US economy into a sharp downturn. They raised their 12-month recession odds to 20% from 15%. According to Goldman, the outlook could worsen if the Trump administration remains steadfast in its policies “even in the face of much worse data.”BlackRock’s BUIDL enters DeFiReal-world asset (RWA) tokenization company Securitize has selected RedStone to provide data feeds for its tokenized products, which include BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL). With the partnership, Securitize’s funds can now be used across DeFi products, including Morpho, Compound and Spark. This could expand BUIDL’s use cases into money market exchanges and collateralized DeFi platforms.BlackRock’s BUIDL is the world’s largest tokenized Treasury fund, reaching $500 million in assets under management in less than four months. It was launched on the Ethereum network and can be accessed through Securitize. The fund invests all of its assets in cash, US Treasury bills and repurchase agreements. Staking ETH?Cboe BZX, a leading securities exchange headquartered in Chicago, is seeking approval from US regulators to add staking into Fidelity’s Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund.According to a March 11 filing, Cboe is proposing a rule change that would allow the Fidelity Ethereum fund to “stake, or cause to be staked, all or a portion of the Trust’s Ether through one or more trusted staking providers.”Staking could potentially boost the appeal of Ether ETFs by giving investors access to yields. In February, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged more than a dozen crypto-related ETF filings. Recognizing the SEC’s regulatory pivot since President Trump’s inauguration, Cboe is attempting to strike while the iron is hot. Crypto Biz is your weekly pulse on the business behind blockchain and crypto, delivered directly to your inbox every Thursday.

The odds of a recession are rising, markets are crashing and President Donald Trump is forging ahead with tariffs.This volatile playbook is eerily similar to Trump’s first term, which started with a bang before giving way to one of the biggest bull markets in recent history. However, this time, Trump seems to have dropped the stock market as one of his favorite barometers of success, opting instead to focus on the long-term health of the US economy. Trump has promised to usher in America’s next “Golden Age,” but before that happens, the economy might need a painful dose of medicine. There is growing speculation that Trump is purposely stoking growth fears and crashing the market to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.It might sound crazy, but there may be a method to Trump’s apparent madness. A coordinated crashFor decades, there was an unspoken rule in Washington that the president must remain tight-lipped about Fed policy. However, Trump threw that convention out the window when he publicly stated that the Fed should consult the president on interest rates. In February, Trump took to social media to say, “Interest Rates should be lowered.” When the central bank refused to play ball, the Trump administration took matters “into their own hands [by] crashing asset prices in an attempt to force Jerome Powell to cut interest rates,” according to entrepreneur and market commentator Anthony Pompliano.Pompliano and others say the Trump administration is intentionally crashing the stock market to bring borrowing costs down before the US government needs to refinance $7 trillion in debt over the next six months.The plan appears to be working, with the 10-year yield plunging nearly 60 basis points from its peak earlier this year. While the Fed isn’t expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting in March, the odds of a May cut are now above 50%. Source: Alex KrugerRecession odds spike to 40%: JPMorganThe crypto and stock market sell-off on March 10 was largely driven by fears that the US economy was barreling toward a recession. Those fears were echoed in the bond market, with the 10-year yield plunging to the lowest level since Trump was elected. Against this backdrop, analysts at JPMorgan have upped their odds of a recession this year to 40% from 30%. Growing recession odds crash the crypto market. Source: CoinMarketCap“We see a material risk that the US falls into recession this year owing to extreme US policies,” the analysts said.Goldman Sachs economists also worry that Trump’s trade war could plunge the US economy into a sharp downturn. They raised their 12-month recession odds to 20% from 15%. According to Goldman, the outlook could worsen if the Trump administration remains steadfast in its policies “even in the face of much worse data.”BlackRock’s BUIDL enters DeFiReal-world asset (RWA) tokenization company Securitize has selected RedStone to provide data feeds for its tokenized products, which include BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL). With the partnership, Securitize’s funds can now be used across DeFi products, including Morpho, Compound and Spark. This could expand BUIDL’s use cases into money market exchanges and collateralized DeFi platforms.BlackRock’s BUIDL is the world’s largest tokenized Treasury fund, reaching $500 million in assets under management in less than four months. It was launched on the Ethereum network and can be accessed through Securitize. The fund invests all of its assets in cash, US Treasury bills and repurchase agreements. Staking ETH?Cboe BZX, a leading securities exchange headquartered in Chicago, is seeking approval from US regulators to add staking into Fidelity’s Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund.According to a March 11 filing, Cboe is proposing a rule change that would allow the Fidelity Ethereum fund to “stake, or cause to be staked, all or a portion of the Trust’s Ether through one or more trusted staking providers.”Staking could potentially boost the appeal of Ether ETFs by giving investors access to yields. In February, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged more than a dozen crypto-related ETF filings. Recognizing the SEC’s regulatory pivot since President Trump’s inauguration, Cboe is attempting to strike while the iron is hot. Crypto Biz is your weekly pulse on the business behind blockchain and crypto, delivered directly to your inbox every Thursday.

The odds of a recession are rising, markets are crashing and President Donald Trump is forging ahead with tariffs.This volatile playbook is eerily similar to Trump’s first term, which started with a bang before giving way to one of the biggest bull markets in recent history. However, this time, Trump seems to have dropped the stock market as one of his favorite barometers of success, opting instead to focus on the long-term health of the US economy. Trump has promised to usher in America’s next “Golden Age,” but before that happens, the economy might need a painful dose of medicine. There is growing speculation that Trump is purposely stoking growth fears and crashing the market to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.It might sound crazy, but there may be a method to Trump’s apparent madness. A coordinated crashFor decades, there was an unspoken rule in Washington that the president must remain tight-lipped about Fed policy. However, Trump threw that convention out the window when he publicly stated that the Fed should consult the president on interest rates. In February, Trump took to social media to say, “Interest Rates should be lowered.” When the central bank refused to play ball, the Trump administration took matters “into their own hands [by] crashing asset prices in an attempt to force Jerome Powell to cut interest rates,” according to entrepreneur and market commentator Anthony Pompliano.Pompliano and others say the Trump administration is intentionally crashing the stock market to bring borrowing costs down before the US government needs to refinance $7 trillion in debt over the next six months.The plan appears to be working, with the 10-year yield plunging nearly 60 basis points from its peak earlier this year. While the Fed isn’t expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting in March, the odds of a May cut are now above 50%. Source: Alex KrugerRecession odds spike to 40%: JPMorganThe crypto and stock market sell-off on March 10 was largely driven by fears that the US economy was barreling toward a recession. Those fears were echoed in the bond market, with the 10-year yield plunging to the lowest level since Trump was elected. Against this backdrop, analysts at JPMorgan have upped their odds of a recession this year to 40% from 30%. Growing recession odds crash the crypto market. Source: CoinMarketCap“We see a material risk that the US falls into recession this year owing to extreme US policies,” the analysts said.Goldman Sachs economists also worry that Trump’s trade war could plunge the US economy into a sharp downturn. They raised their 12-month recession odds to 20% from 15%. According to Goldman, the outlook could worsen if the Trump administration remains steadfast in its policies “even in the face of much worse data.”BlackRock’s BUIDL enters DeFiReal-world asset (RWA) tokenization company Securitize has selected RedStone to provide data feeds for its tokenized products, which include BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL). With the partnership, Securitize’s funds can now be used across DeFi products, including Morpho, Compound and Spark. This could expand BUIDL’s use cases into money market exchanges and collateralized DeFi platforms.BlackRock’s BUIDL is the world’s largest tokenized Treasury fund, reaching $500 million in assets under management in less than four months. It was launched on the Ethereum network and can be accessed through Securitize. The fund invests all of its assets in cash, US Treasury bills and repurchase agreements. Staking ETH?Cboe BZX, a leading securities exchange headquartered in Chicago, is seeking approval from US regulators to add staking into Fidelity’s Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund.According to a March 11 filing, Cboe is proposing a rule change that would allow the Fidelity Ethereum fund to “stake, or cause to be staked, all or a portion of the Trust’s Ether through one or more trusted staking providers.”Staking could potentially boost the appeal of Ether ETFs by giving investors access to yields. In February, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged more than a dozen crypto-related ETF filings. Recognizing the SEC’s regulatory pivot since President Trump’s inauguration, Cboe is attempting to strike while the iron is hot. Crypto Biz is your weekly pulse on the business behind blockchain and crypto, delivered directly to your inbox every Thursday.

The odds of a recession are rising, markets are crashing and President Donald Trump is forging ahead with tariffs.This volatile playbook is eerily similar to Trump’s first term, which started with a bang before giving way to one of the biggest bull markets in recent history. However, this time, Trump seems to have dropped the stock market as one of his favorite barometers of success, opting instead to focus on the long-term health of the US economy. Trump has promised to usher in America’s next “Golden Age,” but before that happens, the economy might need a painful dose of medicine. There is growing speculation that Trump is purposely stoking growth fears and crashing the market to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.It might sound crazy, but there may be a method to Trump’s apparent madness. A coordinated crashFor decades, there was an unspoken rule in Washington that the president must remain tight-lipped about Fed policy. However, Trump threw that convention out the window when he publicly stated that the Fed should consult the president on interest rates. In February, Trump took to social media to say, “Interest Rates should be lowered.” When the central bank refused to play ball, the Trump administration took matters “into their own hands [by] crashing asset prices in an attempt to force Jerome Powell to cut interest rates,” according to entrepreneur and market commentator Anthony Pompliano.Pompliano and others say the Trump administration is intentionally crashing the stock market to bring borrowing costs down before the US government needs to refinance $7 trillion in debt over the next six months.The plan appears to be working, with the 10-year yield plunging nearly 60 basis points from its peak earlier this year. While the Fed isn’t expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting in March, the odds of a May cut are now above 50%. Source: Alex KrugerRecession odds spike to 40%: JPMorganThe crypto and stock market sell-off on March 10 was largely driven by fears that the US economy was barreling toward a recession. Those fears were echoed in the bond market, with the 10-year yield plunging to the lowest level since Trump was elected. Against this backdrop, analysts at JPMorgan have upped their odds of a recession this year to 40% from 30%. Growing recession odds crash the crypto market. Source: CoinMarketCap“We see a material risk that the US falls into recession this year owing to extreme US policies,” the analysts said.Goldman Sachs economists also worry that Trump’s trade war could plunge the US economy into a sharp downturn. They raised their 12-month recession odds to 20% from 15%. According to Goldman, the outlook could worsen if the Trump administration remains steadfast in its policies “even in the face of much worse data.”BlackRock’s BUIDL enters DeFiReal-world asset (RWA) tokenization company Securitize has selected RedStone to provide data feeds for its tokenized products, which include BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL). With the partnership, Securitize’s funds can now be used across DeFi products, including Morpho, Compound and Spark. This could expand BUIDL’s use cases into money market exchanges and collateralized DeFi platforms.BlackRock’s BUIDL is the world’s largest tokenized Treasury fund, reaching $500 million in assets under management in less than four months. It was launched on the Ethereum network and can be accessed through Securitize. The fund invests all of its assets in cash, US Treasury bills and repurchase agreements. Staking ETH?Cboe BZX, a leading securities exchange headquartered in Chicago, is seeking approval from US regulators to add staking into Fidelity’s Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund.According to a March 11 filing, Cboe is proposing a rule change that would allow the Fidelity Ethereum fund to “stake, or cause to be staked, all or a portion of the Trust’s Ether through one or more trusted staking providers.”Staking could potentially boost the appeal of Ether ETFs by giving investors access to yields. In February, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged more than a dozen crypto-related ETF filings. Recognizing the SEC’s regulatory pivot since President Trump’s inauguration, Cboe is attempting to strike while the iron is hot. Crypto Biz is your weekly pulse on the business behind blockchain and crypto, delivered directly to your inbox every Thursday.

The odds of a recession are rising, markets are crashing and President Donald Trump is forging ahead with tariffs.This volatile playbook is eerily similar to Trump’s first term, which started with a bang before giving way to one of the biggest bull markets in recent history. However, this time, Trump seems to have dropped the stock market as one of his favorite barometers of success, opting instead to focus on the long-term health of the US economy. Trump has promised to usher in America’s next “Golden Age,” but before that happens, the economy might need a painful dose of medicine. There is growing speculation that Trump is purposely stoking growth fears and crashing the market to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.It might sound crazy, but there may be a method to Trump’s apparent madness. A coordinated crashFor decades, there was an unspoken rule in Washington that the president must remain tight-lipped about Fed policy. However, Trump threw that convention out the window when he publicly stated that the Fed should consult the president on interest rates. In February, Trump took to social media to say, “Interest Rates should be lowered.” When the central bank refused to play ball, the Trump administration took matters “into their own hands [by] crashing asset prices in an attempt to force Jerome Powell to cut interest rates,” according to entrepreneur and market commentator Anthony Pompliano.Pompliano and others say the Trump administration is intentionally crashing the stock market to bring borrowing costs down before the US government needs to refinance $7 trillion in debt over the next six months.The plan appears to be working, with the 10-year yield plunging nearly 60 basis points from its peak earlier this year. While the Fed isn’t expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting in March, the odds of a May cut are now above 50%. Source: Alex KrugerRecession odds spike to 40%: JPMorganThe crypto and stock market sell-off on March 10 was largely driven by fears that the US economy was barreling toward a recession. Those fears were echoed in the bond market, with the 10-year yield plunging to the lowest level since Trump was elected. Against this backdrop, analysts at JPMorgan have upped their odds of a recession this year to 40% from 30%. Growing recession odds crash the crypto market. Source: CoinMarketCap“We see a material risk that the US falls into recession this year owing to extreme US policies,” the analysts said.Goldman Sachs economists also worry that Trump’s trade war could plunge the US economy into a sharp downturn. They raised their 12-month recession odds to 20% from 15%. According to Goldman, the outlook could worsen if the Trump administration remains steadfast in its policies “even in the face of much worse data.”BlackRock’s BUIDL enters DeFiReal-world asset (RWA) tokenization company Securitize has selected RedStone to provide data feeds for its tokenized products, which include BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL). With the partnership, Securitize’s funds can now be used across DeFi products, including Morpho, Compound and Spark. This could expand BUIDL’s use cases into money market exchanges and collateralized DeFi platforms.BlackRock’s BUIDL is the world’s largest tokenized Treasury fund, reaching $500 million in assets under management in less than four months. It was launched on the Ethereum network and can be accessed through Securitize. The fund invests all of its assets in cash, US Treasury bills and repurchase agreements. Staking ETH?Cboe BZX, a leading securities exchange headquartered in Chicago, is seeking approval from US regulators to add staking into Fidelity’s Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund.According to a March 11 filing, Cboe is proposing a rule change that would allow the Fidelity Ethereum fund to “stake, or cause to be staked, all or a portion of the Trust’s Ether through one or more trusted staking providers.”Staking could potentially boost the appeal of Ether ETFs by giving investors access to yields. In February, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged more than a dozen crypto-related ETF filings. Recognizing the SEC’s regulatory pivot since President Trump’s inauguration, Cboe is attempting to strike while the iron is hot. Crypto Biz is your weekly pulse on the business behind blockchain and crypto, delivered directly to your inbox every Thursday.

The odds of a recession are rising, markets are crashing and President Donald Trump is forging ahead with tariffs.This volatile playbook is eerily similar to Trump’s first term, which started with a bang before giving way to one of the biggest bull markets in recent history. However, this time, Trump seems to have dropped the stock market as one of his favorite barometers of success, opting instead to focus on the long-term health of the US economy. Trump has promised to usher in America’s next “Golden Age,” but before that happens, the economy might need a painful dose of medicine. There is growing speculation that Trump is purposely stoking growth fears and crashing the market to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.It might sound crazy, but there may be a method to Trump’s apparent madness. A coordinated crashFor decades, there was an unspoken rule in Washington that the president must remain tight-lipped about Fed policy. However, Trump threw that convention out the window when he publicly stated that the Fed should consult the president on interest rates. In February, Trump took to social media to say, “Interest Rates should be lowered.” When the central bank refused to play ball, the Trump administration took matters “into their own hands [by] crashing asset prices in an attempt to force Jerome Powell to cut interest rates,” according to entrepreneur and market commentator Anthony Pompliano.Pompliano and others say the Trump administration is intentionally crashing the stock market to bring borrowing costs down before the US government needs to refinance $7 trillion in debt over the next six months.The plan appears to be working, with the 10-year yield plunging nearly 60 basis points from its peak earlier this year. While the Fed isn’t expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting in March, the odds of a May cut are now above 50%. Source: Alex KrugerRecession odds spike to 40%: JPMorganThe crypto and stock market sell-off on March 10 was largely driven by fears that the US economy was barreling toward a recession. Those fears were echoed in the bond market, with the 10-year yield plunging to the lowest level since Trump was elected. Against this backdrop, analysts at JPMorgan have upped their odds of a recession this year to 40% from 30%. Growing recession odds crash the crypto market. Source: CoinMarketCap“We see a material risk that the US falls into recession this year owing to extreme US policies,” the analysts said.Goldman Sachs economists also worry that Trump’s trade war could plunge the US economy into a sharp downturn. They raised their 12-month recession odds to 20% from 15%. According to Goldman, the outlook could worsen if the Trump administration remains steadfast in its policies “even in the face of much worse data.”BlackRock’s BUIDL enters DeFiReal-world asset (RWA) tokenization company Securitize has selected RedStone to provide data feeds for its tokenized products, which include BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL). With the partnership, Securitize’s funds can now be used across DeFi products, including Morpho, Compound and Spark. This could expand BUIDL’s use cases into money market exchanges and collateralized DeFi platforms.BlackRock’s BUIDL is the world’s largest tokenized Treasury fund, reaching $500 million in assets under management in less than four months. It was launched on the Ethereum network and can be accessed through Securitize. The fund invests all of its assets in cash, US Treasury bills and repurchase agreements. Staking ETH?Cboe BZX, a leading securities exchange headquartered in Chicago, is seeking approval from US regulators to add staking into Fidelity’s Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund.According to a March 11 filing, Cboe is proposing a rule change that would allow the Fidelity Ethereum fund to “stake, or cause to be staked, all or a portion of the Trust’s Ether through one or more trusted staking providers.”Staking could potentially boost the appeal of Ether ETFs by giving investors access to yields. In February, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged more than a dozen crypto-related ETF filings. Recognizing the SEC’s regulatory pivot since President Trump’s inauguration, Cboe is attempting to strike while the iron is hot. Crypto Biz is your weekly pulse on the business behind blockchain and crypto, delivered directly to your inbox every Thursday.