Author: dfmines

The cryptocurrency market has faced a significant downturn since the start of 2025, with some investors calling it the most painful cycle in history.Some were disappointed about industry policy changes and the memecoin craze in the United States, while others even speculated about talent leaving the sector for other industries.However, while the current crypto market state might look grim to some, the current cycle is far from being the most brutal on record, and many community members remain bullish.“For those who have been through multiple cycles, this is just part of the process,” Trezor analyst Lucien Bourdon told Cointelegraph.The post-Trump inauguration saleThe current decline in crypto markets came after Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high above $106,000 in December 2024, with the spike largely attributed to optimism around Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.While many were optimistic, some investors, such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, accurately predicted a crypto sell-off following Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20.Bitcoin price chart since October 2024. Source: CoinGeckoSince then, Bitcoin has tumbled more than 18%, with the total crypto market capitalization erasing almost all gains that came from Trump’s election win, dropping 25%.In the post-Trump inauguration sale, investors offloaded about $4.6 billion from crypto exchange-traded products by March 7, while the spot market saw even more outflows, with at least $1 billion in liquidations in a single day on March 3.What was the most brutal crypto sell-off in history?But the most recent sell-off is not the worst on record. “If we’re talking about the worst Bitcoin cycle, 2014–2015 was possibly the most brutal,” Trezor’s Bourdon told Cointelegraph.Referring to the collapse of the Mt. Gox crypto exchange, which suffered an 850,000 BTC loss in a security breach in 2024, the analyst highlighted the event as the worst Bitcoin sell-off on record. Bitcoin price chart in the period from July 2013 to July 2016. Source: CoinGecko“The Mt. Gox collapse wiped out 70% of Bitcoin’s trading volume, leading to an 85% drawdown in a market with no institutional support and far less liquidity,” Bourdon said.More than just falling pricesAccording to Brett Reeves, head of BitGo’s European sales, there is a “great deal more to just falling pieces” in the current market.In addition to bigger price downturns in the past, Reeves highlighted notable advancements in global crypto products and regulation, which point to crypto assets increasingly becoming integral to the international financial system. He said:“While prices may be crashing for now, we must remember how far we’ve come in a short space in time and just how much potential this space has in the years ahead.”Contrary to crypto doubters and pessimists, some industry executives even see the current market cycle as a bull market.Related: EU retaliatory tariffs threaten Bitcoin correction to $75K — Analysts“I actually think it’s the best,” Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan told Cointelegraph, adding:“What sets this bull market apart from previous crypto bull runs is that it’s the first time we’ve seen prices rising over time that is not accompanied by copious money printing. This pullback is a short-term pain that will enable long-term gain.”According to crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, terms like “bull market,” “bear market,” “cycle,” or “altseason” are not even suitable for the current market situation.Source: Miles Deutscher“This is a different market now,” he said in an X post on March 13.Magazine: Trump-Biden bet led to obsession with ‘idiotic’ NFTs —Batsoupyum, NFT Collector

The cryptocurrency market has faced a significant downturn since the start of 2025, with some investors calling it the most painful cycle in history.Some were disappointed about industry policy changes and the memecoin craze in the United States, while others even speculated about talent leaving the sector for other industries.However, while the current crypto market state might look grim to some, the current cycle is far from being the most brutal on record, and many community members remain bullish.“For those who have been through multiple cycles, this is just part of the process,” Trezor analyst Lucien Bourdon told Cointelegraph.The post-Trump inauguration saleThe current decline in crypto markets came after Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high above $106,000 in December 2024, with the spike largely attributed to optimism around Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.While many were optimistic, some investors, such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, accurately predicted a crypto sell-off following Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20.Bitcoin price chart since October 2024. Source: CoinGeckoSince then, Bitcoin has tumbled more than 18%, with the total crypto market capitalization erasing almost all gains that came from Trump’s election win, dropping 25%.In the post-Trump inauguration sale, investors offloaded about $4.6 billion from crypto exchange-traded products by March 7, while the spot market saw even more outflows, with at least $1 billion in liquidations in a single day on March 3.What was the most brutal crypto sell-off in history?But the most recent sell-off is not the worst on record. “If we’re talking about the worst Bitcoin cycle, 2014–2015 was possibly the most brutal,” Trezor’s Bourdon told Cointelegraph.Referring to the collapse of the Mt. Gox crypto exchange, which suffered an 850,000 BTC loss in a security breach in 2024, the analyst highlighted the event as the worst Bitcoin sell-off on record. Bitcoin price chart in the period from July 2013 to July 2016. Source: CoinGecko“The Mt. Gox collapse wiped out 70% of Bitcoin’s trading volume, leading to an 85% drawdown in a market with no institutional support and far less liquidity,” Bourdon said.More than just falling pricesAccording to Brett Reeves, head of BitGo’s European sales, there is a “great deal more to just falling pieces” in the current market.In addition to bigger price downturns in the past, Reeves highlighted notable advancements in global crypto products and regulation, which point to crypto assets increasingly becoming integral to the international financial system. He said:“While prices may be crashing for now, we must remember how far we’ve come in a short space in time and just how much potential this space has in the years ahead.”Contrary to crypto doubters and pessimists, some industry executives even see the current market cycle as a bull market.Related: EU retaliatory tariffs threaten Bitcoin correction to $75K — Analysts“I actually think it’s the best,” Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan told Cointelegraph, adding:“What sets this bull market apart from previous crypto bull runs is that it’s the first time we’ve seen prices rising over time that is not accompanied by copious money printing. This pullback is a short-term pain that will enable long-term gain.”According to crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, terms like “bull market,” “bear market,” “cycle,” or “altseason” are not even suitable for the current market situation.Source: Miles Deutscher“This is a different market now,” he said in an X post on March 13.Magazine: Trump-Biden bet led to obsession with ‘idiotic’ NFTs —Batsoupyum, NFT Collector

The cryptocurrency market has faced a significant downturn since the start of 2025, with some investors calling it the most painful cycle in history.Some were disappointed about industry policy changes and the memecoin craze in the United States, while others even speculated about talent leaving the sector for other industries.However, while the current crypto market state might look grim to some, the current cycle is far from being the most brutal on record, and many community members remain bullish.“For those who have been through multiple cycles, this is just part of the process,” Trezor analyst Lucien Bourdon told Cointelegraph.The post-Trump inauguration saleThe current decline in crypto markets came after Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high above $106,000 in December 2024, with the spike largely attributed to optimism around Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.While many were optimistic, some investors, such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, accurately predicted a crypto sell-off following Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20.Bitcoin price chart since October 2024. Source: CoinGeckoSince then, Bitcoin has tumbled more than 18%, with the total crypto market capitalization erasing almost all gains that came from Trump’s election win, dropping 25%.In the post-Trump inauguration sale, investors offloaded about $4.6 billion from crypto exchange-traded products by March 7, while the spot market saw even more outflows, with at least $1 billion in liquidations in a single day on March 3.What was the most brutal crypto sell-off in history?But the most recent sell-off is not the worst on record. “If we’re talking about the worst Bitcoin cycle, 2014–2015 was possibly the most brutal,” Trezor’s Bourdon told Cointelegraph.Referring to the collapse of the Mt. Gox crypto exchange, which suffered an 850,000 BTC loss in a security breach in 2024, the analyst highlighted the event as the worst Bitcoin sell-off on record. Bitcoin price chart in the period from July 2013 to July 2016. Source: CoinGecko“The Mt. Gox collapse wiped out 70% of Bitcoin’s trading volume, leading to an 85% drawdown in a market with no institutional support and far less liquidity,” Bourdon said.More than just falling pricesAccording to Brett Reeves, head of BitGo’s European sales, there is a “great deal more to just falling pieces” in the current market.In addition to bigger price downturns in the past, Reeves highlighted notable advancements in global crypto products and regulation, which point to crypto assets increasingly becoming integral to the international financial system. He said:“While prices may be crashing for now, we must remember how far we’ve come in a short space in time and just how much potential this space has in the years ahead.”Contrary to crypto doubters and pessimists, some industry executives even see the current market cycle as a bull market.Related: EU retaliatory tariffs threaten Bitcoin correction to $75K — Analysts“I actually think it’s the best,” Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan told Cointelegraph, adding:“What sets this bull market apart from previous crypto bull runs is that it’s the first time we’ve seen prices rising over time that is not accompanied by copious money printing. This pullback is a short-term pain that will enable long-term gain.”According to crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, terms like “bull market,” “bear market,” “cycle,” or “altseason” are not even suitable for the current market situation.Source: Miles Deutscher“This is a different market now,” he said in an X post on March 13.Magazine: Trump-Biden bet led to obsession with ‘idiotic’ NFTs —Batsoupyum, NFT Collector

The cryptocurrency market has faced a significant downturn since the start of 2025, with some investors calling it the most painful cycle in history.Some were disappointed about industry policy changes and the memecoin craze in the United States, while others even speculated about talent leaving the sector for other industries.However, while the current crypto market state might look grim to some, the current cycle is far from being the most brutal on record, and many community members remain bullish.“For those who have been through multiple cycles, this is just part of the process,” Trezor analyst Lucien Bourdon told Cointelegraph.The post-Trump inauguration saleThe current decline in crypto markets came after Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high above $106,000 in December 2024, with the spike largely attributed to optimism around Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.While many were optimistic, some investors, such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, accurately predicted a crypto sell-off following Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20.Bitcoin price chart since October 2024. Source: CoinGeckoSince then, Bitcoin has tumbled more than 18%, with the total crypto market capitalization erasing almost all gains that came from Trump’s election win, dropping 25%.In the post-Trump inauguration sale, investors offloaded about $4.6 billion from crypto exchange-traded products by March 7, while the spot market saw even more outflows, with at least $1 billion in liquidations in a single day on March 3.What was the most brutal crypto sell-off in history?But the most recent sell-off is not the worst on record. “If we’re talking about the worst Bitcoin cycle, 2014–2015 was possibly the most brutal,” Trezor’s Bourdon told Cointelegraph.Referring to the collapse of the Mt. Gox crypto exchange, which suffered an 850,000 BTC loss in a security breach in 2024, the analyst highlighted the event as the worst Bitcoin sell-off on record. Bitcoin price chart in the period from July 2013 to July 2016. Source: CoinGecko“The Mt. Gox collapse wiped out 70% of Bitcoin’s trading volume, leading to an 85% drawdown in a market with no institutional support and far less liquidity,” Bourdon said.More than just falling pricesAccording to Brett Reeves, head of BitGo’s European sales, there is a “great deal more to just falling pieces” in the current market.In addition to bigger price downturns in the past, Reeves highlighted notable advancements in global crypto products and regulation, which point to crypto assets increasingly becoming integral to the international financial system. He said:“While prices may be crashing for now, we must remember how far we’ve come in a short space in time and just how much potential this space has in the years ahead.”Contrary to crypto doubters and pessimists, some industry executives even see the current market cycle as a bull market.Related: EU retaliatory tariffs threaten Bitcoin correction to $75K — Analysts“I actually think it’s the best,” Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan told Cointelegraph, adding:“What sets this bull market apart from previous crypto bull runs is that it’s the first time we’ve seen prices rising over time that is not accompanied by copious money printing. This pullback is a short-term pain that will enable long-term gain.”According to crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, terms like “bull market,” “bear market,” “cycle,” or “altseason” are not even suitable for the current market situation.Source: Miles Deutscher“This is a different market now,” he said in an X post on March 13.Magazine: Trump-Biden bet led to obsession with ‘idiotic’ NFTs —Batsoupyum, NFT Collector

The latest Bitso Crypto Landscape in Latam report indicates that the region is still fertile ground for cryptocurrency markets. The stablecoin market grew, accounting for almost 40% of all purchases, while bitcoin purchases diminished to 22%. Bitso Report Shows Stablecoins Remain Strong in Latam Bitso, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges operating in Latin America, […]

submitted by /u/goldyluckinblokchain [link] [comments]

Bitcoin (BTC) breached a rising support trendline against gold (XAU), which has been intact for over 12 years, on March 14. XAU/BTC ratio weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView/NorthStarPopular analyst NorthStar says this breakdown could spell the end of Bitcoin’s 12-year bull run if it stays under the gold trendline for even a week or—worse—a month. Is Bitcoin’s bull market over? Let’s take a closer look at BTC’s correlation with gold. Gold hits new record high as Bitcoin’s uptrend coolsThe BTC/XAU ratio breakdown occurred as spot gold rates hit a new record high above $3,000 per ounce on March 14, after rising by about 12.80% year-to-date. In contrast, Bitcoin, which is often called “digital gold,” has dropped by 11% so far in 2025.BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD YTD performance chart. Source: TradingViewThe performances reflect the contrasting net flows into US-based spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) tracking Bitcoin and gold.For instance, as of March 14, the US-based spot gold ETFs had collectively attracted over $6.48 billion YTD, according to data resource World Gold Council. Globally, gold ETFs have seen $23.18 billion in inflows.Gold ETFs weekly holdings by region. Source: GoldHub.comOn the other hand, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $1.46 billion in outflows YTD, according to onchain data platform Glassnode. US Bitcoin ETFs year-to-date net flows. Source: Glassnode The driving force behind this divergence lies in growing macroeconomic uncertainty and risk-off sentiment, exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies. Related: Bitcoin panic selling costs new investors $100M in 6 weeks — ResearchNew tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada have heightened fears of a global economic slowdown, pushing investors toward traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, central banks, including those in the US, China, and the UK, have accelerated their gold purchases, further boosting gold prices. Countries that acquired the most gold so far in 2025. Source: GoldHub.comIn contrast, Bitcoin is mirroring the broader risk-on market. As of March 14, its 52-week correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq Composite index was 0.76.BTC/USD vs. Nasdaq Composite 52-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingViewHas Bitcoin price topped?The current Bitcoin-to-gold breakdown aligns with historical patterns, particularly the March 2021–March 2022 fractal, which preceded the last bear market.At that time, the BTC/XAU ratio exhibited a bearish divergence, characterized by rising prices juxtaposed against a declining relative strength index (RSI). This pattern suggested diminishing upward momentum.BTC/XAU ratio two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewConsequently, the ratio initially retreated toward the 50-period, two-week exponential moving average (EMA) support level before ultimately plummeting by 60%.That BTC/XAU breakdown period coincided with Bitcoin’s 68% correction against the US dollar.BTC/USD two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewBTC/XAU has once again completed a two-phase EMA retest, echoing the 2021–2022 fractal. BTC/USD two-week performance chart (zoomed). Source: TradingViewWith the RSI showing bearish divergence, momentum appears to be fading, increasing the probability of further declines, especially if the ratio drops decisively below the 50-2W EMA support (~26 XAU).As a result, it could also indicate Bitcoin’s increased vulnerability to price declines in dollar terms, with the 50-2W EMA below $65,000 acting as the next potential downside target.BTC/USD 2W price performance chart. Source: TradingViewThat is down about 40% from Bitcoin’s record high of around $110,000 established in January. Still, Nansen analysts consider such a decline as a “correction within a bull market,” raising possibilities of a bullish revival if the 50-2W EMA holds as support. However, a definitive break below the EMA could thrust Bitcoin into bear market territory. That could drag Bitcoin’s 2025 downside target toward the 200-period two-week EMA (the blue wave) to as low as $34,850 if this Bitcoin-gold fractal repeats. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) breached a rising support trendline against gold (XAU), which has been intact for over 12 years, on March 14. XAU/BTC ratio weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView/NorthStarPopular analyst NorthStar says this breakdown could spell the end of Bitcoin’s 12-year bull run if it stays under the gold trendline for even a week or—worse—a month. Is Bitcoin’s bull market over? Let’s take a closer look at BTC’s correlation with gold. Gold hits new record high as Bitcoin’s uptrend coolsThe BTC/XAU ratio breakdown occurred as spot gold rates hit a new record high above $3,000 per ounce on March 14, after rising by about 12.80% year-to-date. In contrast, Bitcoin, which is often called “digital gold,” has dropped by 11% so far in 2025.BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD YTD performance chart. Source: TradingViewThe performances reflect the contrasting net flows into US-based spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) tracking Bitcoin and gold.For instance, as of March 14, the US-based spot gold ETFs had collectively attracted over $6.48 billion YTD, according to data resource World Gold Council. Globally, gold ETFs have seen $23.18 billion in inflows.Gold ETFs weekly holdings by region. Source: GoldHub.comOn the other hand, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $1.46 billion in outflows YTD, according to onchain data platform Glassnode. US Bitcoin ETFs year-to-date net flows. Source: Glassnode The driving force behind this divergence lies in growing macroeconomic uncertainty and risk-off sentiment, exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies. Related: Bitcoin panic selling costs new investors $100M in 6 weeks — ResearchNew tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada have heightened fears of a global economic slowdown, pushing investors toward traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, central banks, including those in the US, China, and the UK, have accelerated their gold purchases, further boosting gold prices. Countries that acquired the most gold so far in 2025. Source: GoldHub.comIn contrast, Bitcoin is mirroring the broader risk-on market. As of March 14, its 52-week correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq Composite index was 0.76.BTC/USD vs. Nasdaq Composite 52-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingViewHas Bitcoin price topped?The current Bitcoin-to-gold breakdown aligns with historical patterns, particularly the March 2021–March 2022 fractal, which preceded the last bear market.At that time, the BTC/XAU ratio exhibited a bearish divergence, characterized by rising prices juxtaposed against a declining relative strength index (RSI). This pattern suggested diminishing upward momentum.BTC/XAU ratio two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewConsequently, the ratio initially retreated toward the 50-period, two-week exponential moving average (EMA) support level before ultimately plummeting by 60%.That BTC/XAU breakdown period coincided with Bitcoin’s 68% correction against the US dollar.BTC/USD two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewBTC/XAU has once again completed a two-phase EMA retest, echoing the 2021–2022 fractal. BTC/USD two-week performance chart (zoomed). Source: TradingViewWith the RSI showing bearish divergence, momentum appears to be fading, increasing the probability of further declines, especially if the ratio drops decisively below the 50-2W EMA support (~26 XAU).As a result, it could also indicate Bitcoin’s increased vulnerability to price declines in dollar terms, with the 50-2W EMA below $65,000 acting as the next potential downside target.BTC/USD 2W price performance chart. Source: TradingViewThat is down about 40% from Bitcoin’s record high of around $110,000 established in January. Still, Nansen analysts consider such a decline as a “correction within a bull market,” raising possibilities of a bullish revival if the 50-2W EMA holds as support. However, a definitive break below the EMA could thrust Bitcoin into bear market territory. That could drag Bitcoin’s 2025 downside target toward the 200-period two-week EMA (the blue wave) to as low as $34,850 if this Bitcoin-gold fractal repeats. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) breached a rising support trendline against gold (XAU), which has been intact for over 12 years, on March 14. XAU/BTC ratio weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView/NorthStarPopular analyst NorthStar says this breakdown could spell the end of Bitcoin’s 12-year bull run if it stays under the gold trendline for even a week or—worse—a month. Is Bitcoin’s bull market over? Let’s take a closer look at BTC’s correlation with gold. Gold hits new record high as Bitcoin’s uptrend coolsThe BTC/XAU ratio breakdown occurred as spot gold rates hit a new record high above $3,000 per ounce on March 14, after rising by about 12.80% year-to-date. In contrast, Bitcoin, which is often called “digital gold,” has dropped by 11% so far in 2025.BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD YTD performance chart. Source: TradingViewThe performances reflect the contrasting net flows into US-based spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) tracking Bitcoin and gold.For instance, as of March 14, the US-based spot gold ETFs had collectively attracted over $6.48 billion YTD, according to data resource World Gold Council. Globally, gold ETFs have seen $23.18 billion in inflows.Gold ETFs weekly holdings by region. Source: GoldHub.comOn the other hand, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $1.46 billion in outflows YTD, according to onchain data platform Glassnode. US Bitcoin ETFs year-to-date net flows. Source: Glassnode The driving force behind this divergence lies in growing macroeconomic uncertainty and risk-off sentiment, exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies. Related: Bitcoin panic selling costs new investors $100M in 6 weeks — ResearchNew tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada have heightened fears of a global economic slowdown, pushing investors toward traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, central banks, including those in the US, China, and the UK, have accelerated their gold purchases, further boosting gold prices. Countries that acquired the most gold so far in 2025. Source: GoldHub.comIn contrast, Bitcoin is mirroring the broader risk-on market. As of March 14, its 52-week correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq Composite index was 0.76.BTC/USD vs. Nasdaq Composite 52-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingViewHas Bitcoin price topped?The current Bitcoin-to-gold breakdown aligns with historical patterns, particularly the March 2021–March 2022 fractal, which preceded the last bear market.At that time, the BTC/XAU ratio exhibited a bearish divergence, characterized by rising prices juxtaposed against a declining relative strength index (RSI). This pattern suggested diminishing upward momentum.BTC/XAU ratio two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewConsequently, the ratio initially retreated toward the 50-period, two-week exponential moving average (EMA) support level before ultimately plummeting by 60%.That BTC/XAU breakdown period coincided with Bitcoin’s 68% correction against the US dollar.BTC/USD two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewBTC/XAU has once again completed a two-phase EMA retest, echoing the 2021–2022 fractal. BTC/USD two-week performance chart (zoomed). Source: TradingViewWith the RSI showing bearish divergence, momentum appears to be fading, increasing the probability of further declines, especially if the ratio drops decisively below the 50-2W EMA support (~26 XAU).As a result, it could also indicate Bitcoin’s increased vulnerability to price declines in dollar terms, with the 50-2W EMA below $65,000 acting as the next potential downside target.BTC/USD 2W price performance chart. Source: TradingViewThat is down about 40% from Bitcoin’s record high of around $110,000 established in January. Still, Nansen analysts consider such a decline as a “correction within a bull market,” raising possibilities of a bullish revival if the 50-2W EMA holds as support. However, a definitive break below the EMA could thrust Bitcoin into bear market territory. That could drag Bitcoin’s 2025 downside target toward the 200-period two-week EMA (the blue wave) to as low as $34,850 if this Bitcoin-gold fractal repeats. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) breached a rising support trendline against gold (XAU), which has been intact for over 12 years, on March 14. XAU/BTC ratio weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView/NorthStarPopular analyst NorthStar says this breakdown could spell the end of Bitcoin’s 12-year bull run if it stays under the gold trendline for even a week or—worse—a month. Is Bitcoin’s bull market over? Let’s take a closer look at BTC’s correlation with gold. Gold hits new record high as Bitcoin’s uptrend coolsThe BTC/XAU ratio breakdown occurred as spot gold rates hit a new record high above $3,000 per ounce on March 14, after rising by about 12.80% year-to-date. In contrast, Bitcoin, which is often called “digital gold,” has dropped by 11% so far in 2025.BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD YTD performance chart. Source: TradingViewThe performances reflect the contrasting net flows into US-based spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) tracking Bitcoin and gold.For instance, as of March 14, the US-based spot gold ETFs had collectively attracted over $6.48 billion YTD, according to data resource World Gold Council. Globally, gold ETFs have seen $23.18 billion in inflows.Gold ETFs weekly holdings by region. Source: GoldHub.comOn the other hand, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $1.46 billion in outflows YTD, according to onchain data platform Glassnode. US Bitcoin ETFs year-to-date net flows. Source: Glassnode The driving force behind this divergence lies in growing macroeconomic uncertainty and risk-off sentiment, exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies. Related: Bitcoin panic selling costs new investors $100M in 6 weeks — ResearchNew tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada have heightened fears of a global economic slowdown, pushing investors toward traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, central banks, including those in the US, China, and the UK, have accelerated their gold purchases, further boosting gold prices. Countries that acquired the most gold so far in 2025. Source: GoldHub.comIn contrast, Bitcoin is mirroring the broader risk-on market. As of March 14, its 52-week correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq Composite index was 0.76.BTC/USD vs. Nasdaq Composite 52-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingViewHas Bitcoin price topped?The current Bitcoin-to-gold breakdown aligns with historical patterns, particularly the March 2021–March 2022 fractal, which preceded the last bear market.At that time, the BTC/XAU ratio exhibited a bearish divergence, characterized by rising prices juxtaposed against a declining relative strength index (RSI). This pattern suggested diminishing upward momentum.BTC/XAU ratio two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewConsequently, the ratio initially retreated toward the 50-period, two-week exponential moving average (EMA) support level before ultimately plummeting by 60%.That BTC/XAU breakdown period coincided with Bitcoin’s 68% correction against the US dollar.BTC/USD two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewBTC/XAU has once again completed a two-phase EMA retest, echoing the 2021–2022 fractal. BTC/USD two-week performance chart (zoomed). Source: TradingViewWith the RSI showing bearish divergence, momentum appears to be fading, increasing the probability of further declines, especially if the ratio drops decisively below the 50-2W EMA support (~26 XAU).As a result, it could also indicate Bitcoin’s increased vulnerability to price declines in dollar terms, with the 50-2W EMA below $65,000 acting as the next potential downside target.BTC/USD 2W price performance chart. Source: TradingViewThat is down about 40% from Bitcoin’s record high of around $110,000 established in January. Still, Nansen analysts consider such a decline as a “correction within a bull market,” raising possibilities of a bullish revival if the 50-2W EMA holds as support. However, a definitive break below the EMA could thrust Bitcoin into bear market territory. That could drag Bitcoin’s 2025 downside target toward the 200-period two-week EMA (the blue wave) to as low as $34,850 if this Bitcoin-gold fractal repeats. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.