Is this a dead cat bounce/bull trap

I know this post will most likely be lost in the downvotes due to it having bearish undertones but here is how I see the markets.

My original price target for BTC in this bear cycle was $12,500, this target has not been reached yet. I believe the current pumps that we are seeing are a rallying bear market/dead cat bounce. I know all too well that that sensation of FOMO is tingling again with these nice green days we have had.

I also believe that the world is just not in an economic place right now for crypto to run bullish. Although you could argue that a lot of the issues in the current financial institutions would be solved or at least benefited by implementation of crypto. On that topic I don’t expect the federal reserve will be able to help with quantitative easing in the next year.

Another point that indicated a dead cat bounce is the fear and greed index which has now flipped to greed after just two green days. For reference the fear to greed score is 56 as of writing this

I am still personally waiting for that 12.5K mark to be hit. What do y’all think? Is this the turning point

Edit: of course no one really knows and I don’t presume to, this is just an opinion