Why is everyone so sure about crypto “cycles”?

Crypto is literally barely a decade old and the whole four year cycle thing could easily be a coincidence. Why is everyone just waiting for the prices to dump instead of focusing on industry growth.

I just think with how volatile and reactive the market is how can that be a “cycle,” where would btc be right now if mt gox or Silk Road never happened? Would shitcoins or even bitcoin have the same momentum they have now without Elon’s hype of Tesla’s purchase+talk of using bitcoin for payment or Dogecoin’s initial massive pump?

Crypto is creating entirely new tech, use cases, and really creating value out of thin air, how is that predictable or follow a cycle?