Just because your prediction was right, doesn’t mean it was right because of your reasoning

It's insane how many people claim to have predicted the market correctly because of their analysis.

"I predicted X$ BTC back in July, this is where we are going from here"

If you bet on real Madrid against Barcelona and Madrid wins, it does not mean you can predict the outcome of the next match. It means you got lucky.

Moreover, just because you predicted the price, doesn't mean it got there because of the "patterns" you analyzed but because some whale bought or an other event like an announcement you could not have been aware of came along.

"Self serving bias" is a drug to always feel good. Your fault, my success. Be reasonable.