How quickly baseFeePerGas changes in EIP-1559 (gSheet and charts)

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How quickly baseFeePerGas changes in EIP-1559 (gSheet and charts)

How quickly baseFeePerGas changes in EIP-1559 (gSheet and charts)

Twitter thread: How quickly baseFeePerGas changes in EIP-1559

I was asked how quickly the EIP-1559 baseFeePerGas rises / falls, & didn't know of an accessible resource.. ..so I made this Hopefully this helps to estimate how quickly we stabilize depending on congestion around London (~Aug 4)

At London, the baseFeePerGas (bFPG) starts at 1 nanoeth (gwei), takes ~3.3 min to ~6x Charts assume only full blocks going up, (+12.5% bFPG / block) and only less than full on the way down.

This is *just* to show the max speed bFPG can rise and fall, reality may not b so smooth

https://preview.redd.it/hcb4ulif4lb71.png?width=940&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c755aba234136fc61b2bbc967ccc78d50c9b22a

Let's step back to look at every other block: baseFeePerGas takes ~6.5 min to ~30x

If you were looking closely, you would have seen that baseFeePerGas drops slightly faster than it rises, due to how % work 📷 #math

https://preview.redd.it/yvb0wdgj4lb71.png?width=940&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2d2ce4dad134fe1e79cac8ddcaa487ddda22f9a

Now every 3 blocks: it takes ~10 min to ~200x If recent gas price trends hold, we can expect the baseFee to stabilize well before this point.

During long periods of successive full blocks, blockspace reverts to a "first price auction" via the priorityFeePerGas: aka "the tip"

https://preview.redd.it/63nqmcdn4lb71.png?width=940&format=png&auto=webp&s=4617622c406d64b04c131d998c92c4a6c267ced9

Finally, every 4 blocks. This is an edge case which may only happen rarely, but after 60 successive full blocks, baseFeePerGas spikes all the way to 1,172 nanoeth (gwei)!

https://preview.redd.it/17aioo2q4lb71.png?width=940&format=png&auto=webp&s=90468cf01726e2614c2f0382681e95ca099ed39f

Note: you may have heard the term baseFee, but in this thread I used the full name: "baseFeePerGas" baseFeePerGas is not a flat fee, it works the same as gas price today: multiplied per gas for how complex your transaction is.

The"multiplier" field in the gSheet can be adjusted to view different timeframes. Thanks @TimBeiko @barnabemonnot @MicahZoltu for reviewing, and @quentinc137 for prompting the question.

London is projected to land Aug 4. I hope you're anticipating it as much as I am!

submitted by /u/trent_vanepps
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