Why is the crypto market as a whole just so darn predictable?

So the post I made earlier – kind of held. No bulls are buying. Supposedly JP put another hit piece out on MSTR and that's the supposed reason for the selloff…

But it's really not. This could have been seen coming a million miles away, honestly. All these hit pieces. And chances are MSTR will probably fail and force sell some Bitcoin dumping prices further. If they have not already due to the MCSI 55% rule.

So that leads to this – why is this so goshdarn predictable?

I've only been swinging it for about 5 years now. But it's easy to see the phases. The best advice is you HAVE to pay attention to vibes on social media, but ALWAYS DO THE OPPOSITE.

The halving cycle in many ways predicts if not outright causes the news cycle. Last time around, Bitcoin's natural decay after the peak FOMO part of the pattern in many ways lead to and caused FTX, but FTX was a byproduct. It could have been easily predicted. Every halving cycle, several exchanges or entities involved in Bitcoin go bankrupt because they don't have the liquidity and/or are so zealious and overconfident that they had the liquidity but then overleveraged. Similar to how MSTR is probably right now. They got too — cocky.

Last cycle, Cathy Woods and CNBC and various other media sources right near the final top in the FOMO pattern were calling for 50% returns from that point. That was a clear sign of – exuberance. At the bottom, nobody wanted it, because they thought it would go to $0. And not just Peter Schiff. A ton of reputable sources thought Bitcoin was failing and done when it hit $19k post-FTX.

So enter this year. I shorted at 118k, in my Roth IRA via BITI. I then doubled down around 105k via SBIT. That's working out for me pretty well right now.

Cyclically speaking, the FUD follows due to – not just your average Joe – but the big entities folding. You can blame JP Morgan for this all you want, but in the end maybe they are sort of helping to move the halving cycle along, but the halving cycle was already set in motion well before JP Morgan started talking FUD on Microstrategy. It really doesn't matter what Microstrategy does at this point – it's just that part of the cycle. Bitcoin is going to continue falling until people stop saying "It's going to 105k. It's going to $1 million. Q4 will be epic. Blah blah blah blah blah blah…."

Don't fight the FUD. Embrace it until it turns into true, undeniable fear. Then buy it.

The only thing that could break the halving cycle is if Trump starts buying Bitcoin and establishing a strategic reserve. Maybe. But I'm not sure that's as bullish as people think – if Trump ends up controlling the Federal Reserve with his agenda and establishes the Bitcoin Reserve – it could actually be quite bearish and may actually cause this to be Bitcoin's Proof of Steak moment to where the next halving cycle high is lower than the current cycle because people are realizing the whole project lost it's mission.