Rethinking the Bitcoin Cycle?

There are currently two camps: those who believe in the traditional 4 year cycle and those who think the era of 4 year cycles is behind us. If you strictly follow the 4 year cycle model, then yes, this cycle may seem like a disappointment. But in retrospect, Bitcoin has made an incredible run. Just 4 to 7 years ago people were talking about banning it, and now it is being accepted by countries, a U.S. President is openly discussing it, and the SEC has approved several ETFs. We have come a long way.

The 4 year cycle is still relevant because of the halving and the impact of supply shocks, but we have probably entered a new phase shaped by broader adoption. Bitcoin has moved from early adopters to everyday investors buying through ETFs. So maybe a third camp is emerging, one that acknowledges the importance of the 4 year cycle while also accepting the new reality of what Bitcoin has become.

In the short term we are under the 50 WMA, which could be interpreted as entering a bear market. But if you also believe in CME gaps, it would not be ideal to close above 103k only to leave a gap of around 9k behind. So let us see what the next week brings. Things should become clearer soon.

These are just some thoughts from a random person. Whether this make sense or not, I am not sure, but I do believe Bitcoin has become something huge in recent years, going from discussions about banning it to being widely accepted across the world.