Bitcoin is only up ~53% on the 4 year chart… or ~36% adjusted for inflation.

As comes as no surprise, literally every single prediction by every influencer and thought leader in the Bitcoin community about this cycle has been completely wrong.

Bitcoin is only up ~53% on the 4 year chart… or ~36% adjusted for inflation.

In the same amount of time, the S&P 500 is up 47% and gold is up 111%.

This is easily the worst performing 4 year period in Bitocin's history. Really makes you wonder about the 4 year cycle and diminishing returns.

Is Bitcoin cooked?

At this rate, if we're lucky, we can expect ~$180-$200k top for the next halving cycle around late 2029, which I'm not eve sure Bitcoin will be able to outperform the SP500 or gold for that matter.

I have to admit, I'm seriously disappointed in Bitcoin's performance. Adoption still isn't happening. I've been a Bitociner for 4.5 years now and I still do not know anyone who owns any. I never hear people talking about it in public or social settings and the few times I've ever brought it up, I get kinda blank stares.

Not to mention, it's clear form on chain metrics that long term holders and OG's are selling. So much for HODL.

Not really sure what to make of it at this point. I think $126k was the top and even if it wasn't, anything less than $160k isn't even double the previous ATH after adjusting for inflation. Some people think we'll make it to $140k this cycle, but even if we did, that's nothing to brag about.

Is this what we're to expect for Bitcoin moving forward? 53% gains every 4 years? What a joke.