Bitcoin Cycles & Fed Chair Timelines (no crystal ball)

https://preview.redd.it/h40ps9d55ywf1.png?width=1542&format=png&auto=webp&s=14c80eab4739a744d9b603f940cd0549cf8d35a5

Bitcoin often topped within 2 months before Fed Chair end of term and, selloff into bear market a month after new Fed Chair or new term. That doesn’t cause the move but those windows come with policy headlines and shifting expectations, which markets react to.

Timeline:

Late 2013 to early 2014 (Bernanke step down Yellen start)

• BTC cycle top: Dec 2013 ($1.2k).
• Chair change: Jan 31, 2014 Bernanke ends, Feb 3, 2014 Yellen starts (2 months after the BTC cycle top).
• What followed: a sharp monthly drop of 32% arrived in March 2014 (1 month after).

Late 2017 to early 2018 (Yellen step down Powell start)

• BTC cycle top: Dec 2017 ($19.7k).
• Chair change: Feb 3 to 5, 2018 Yellen ends, Powell starts (2 months after the BTC cycle top).
• What followed: another steep monthly selloff 33% in March 2018(1 month after).

Late 2021 to mid 2022 (Powell term renewal)

• BTC late cycle high: Nov 2021 (~$69k).
• Chair milestone: first term ended on Feb 5th 2022 (2.5 months); second term was delayed and confirmed on May 2022 (during the shift to rate hikes/QT).
• What followed: the bear market accelerated into a 37% red candle June 2022( again 1 month after).

Why the Fed Chair Matters for Bitcoin:

The U.S. dollar dominates global finance, used in 88% of transactions and 59% of reserves, making the Fed’s monetary policy a key driver of Bitcoin’s price. The Fed controls liquidity via interest rates and QE/QT. Loose policy boosts risk assets like Bitcoin, tight policy suppresses them. Inflation fears also fuel Bitcoin’s “digital gold” appeal. The Fed Chair leads the FOMC, setting policy tone and expectations. A new Chair in 2026 could signal policy shifts, impacting Bitcoin’s volatility. While Bitcoin’s supply is fixed, its trading environment is fiat driven, tying its cycles to Fed actions.

Future Outlook:

Powell’s second term ends May 23, 2026. If the pattern holds, Bitcoin could peak around Feb or March 2026 (2+ months prior), potentially followed by a bear market in June 2026, marked by a 30~40% correction. However, external factors like regulation or global events could shift timelines.

my risk metric isn’t flagging a hot zone (80-100) for Bitcoin this cycle yet, we might still have time. Currently BTC 110k = risk 48 over 100.