Uptober and its seasonal probability
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Let’s cut through the Uptober hype with some cold, hard data. You’ve got a chart of Bitcoin monthly returns and you’re eyeing October. From 2013 to 2024, October closed green 10/12 times (only 2014 and 2018 were red). If this month Oct-2025 closes red, that’s 3/13 about 23% odds of a down month. Nice edge, sure, but not destiny. The seasonal probability 70/30: In traditional markets, many calendar effects win around 60-70% of the time over long samples, good, but far from guaranteed. Two well studied examples: the Halloween indicator (“Sell in May”) shows higher Nov-Apr returns across many markets, but not every year, updated research still finds persistence, not certainty. Likewise, the turn of the month effect concentrates a big chunk of average monthly return into a few days, yet it also fails regularly. In short, seasonality is probabilistic, think 70/30, not 100/0. Reality check: markets don’t care about calendars, they care about cycles, liquidity, and macro. If we’re in a prolonged consolidation (post-halving churn, shifting policy), that ~23% downside month isn’t some anomaly, it’s the cost of playing a probabilistic edge. The log trend can stay intact while October still prints red. Bottom line: Use seasonality as context, not a trigger. Based on my risk metric, BTC $109K = risk 48. It's still under 50 and today is Sunday. I'm DCAing in, sticking to my plan. Source:
submitted by /u/hduynam99 |
