Why This Bull Market Feels Slow (and Why That’s a Good Thing)

Most old timers who have HODLed for years are not bothered by the price action, but for someone like me who started doing so about a year ago, the current bull market might feel lackluster. I started after the election, and have DCA'ed whenever possible, with an average price of ~$95k. For the entire year of 2025, we've seen so many bullish tailwinds — a crypto-friendly President (whether you like him or not), institutional adoption, the narrative shifting to "digital gold," the GENIUS Act, and the list goes on. But the price hasn't reflected all these changes. My post is about bitcoin only, but other coins follow bitcoin.

We all know the market is influenced by big players, but here's my explanation of 'how'.

• Institutions and big whales do not usually buy directly on exchanges. They buy through OTC desks, which arrange large trades privately, often referencing the exchange price.
• In order to execute these large orders, it is in the best interest of whales to reduce volatility. Even Saylor says so in one of his interviews — institutions want to buy at a relatively stable price. They don't really care if the price is $90k, $100k, or $107k, or $125k … they want the price to be relatively stable when the order is executed.
• Market makers may dampen volatility by providing liquidity. I trade gold futures as well, and it beautifully obeys all the charting rules, and support/resistances. The market is so huge for gold that it is really hard to manipulate the price. But in case of bitcoin, it is (relatively) easier.
• I suspect that they sometimes sell (small amounts, mostly off-market hours) on exchanges to suppress upward movement, while buying HUGE amounts OTC.
• Here is the balance of OTC desks, and as you can see, it has been steadily declining and has now stabilized around 150k bitcoin. I think this may be the minimum that OTC desks should have …
• If whales aren't able to buy OTC because of low balance, they buy on exchanges. Here's the balance on exchanges, dropping so fast!
• There will come a time when exchanges will also have to maintain a minimum balance, and that's when the demand will overwhelm the supply — causing the 'supply shock' that everyone has been talking about for years.
• What will this supply shock look like? Well, it's anyone's guess — but I think the volatility will drastically increase, and the price will start going up like crazy. There will always be sellers at various levels, but the demand will be way more.
• What will accelerate this? I think the balances on the OTC desks and exchanges must fall to their bare minimum levels, and the world should start viewing bitcoin as a 'hard asset' (a risk-off asset like Gold).
• IF there is a recession and a stock market downturn, AND the demand for 'digital gold' increases just like Gold, this will greatly help with the price appreciation.
• I also feel like there won't be a 4-year cycle anymore, because the drop in supply due to halving will have minimal effect compared to the growing demand (ETF and institutional flows are already far larger).

Bottomline: Please don't sell right now. Do what the whales are doing — accumulate as much as possible and just HODL.