Gold, Silver, Equities, and Implications for Crypto

My background is in market risk modeling, which feeds into capital allocation for a Tier 1 investment bank. I cover multiple asset classes, including Commodities and Equities — though not Bitcoin, as it’s excluded under current bank capital model rules.

Rather than share random TA charts, I’ll provide some qualitative observations on gold, silver, and equities, and how they affect crypto.

Gold

Gold is clearly in a euphoric phase. Its momentum began in late 2021 as central banks raised rates to counter post-COVID inflation. The 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict added further tailwinds through capital flight, supply shocks, and macro uncertainty.

The current euphoria is driven largely by speculators exploiting the “exchange-for-physical” basis between London and New York markets (a classic late-cycle behavior). Retail interest has followed. I expect this phase to last only a few more months before a sharp correction.

Silver

Speculators have since rotated into silver, which shows a similar exchange-for-physical dynamic. Silver’s practical utility adds to its short-term appeal, but this too is likely temporary (perhaps three months) before normalization.

Implications for Crypto Gold and silver, being less volatile, currently offer better risk-adjusted returns than Bitcoin. From an investor’s perspective: why take on higher risk for lower return? This dynamic has weighed on crypto.

However, as both metals approach their peaks, their relative appeal will fade likely leading to capital rotation into Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

Equities and the “Magnificent 7”

The “Magnificent 7” tech stocks have driven equity markets to euphoric highs, inflating index performance. Index investors benefit from this diversification, but it masks underlying weakness in the broader market.

Strip out these seven names, and U.S. equities look far more reasonable — at which point, crypto begins to offer more attractive risk-reward. I believe institutions are already trimming exposure, though retail remains caught up in the hype. A correction seems likely within 3–6 months.

Outlook for Crypto

The crypto bull market isn’t over — but we’re likely in a sideways phase for the next few months as broader markets unwind. The bottom for BTC is in. These are conditions I’d consider accumulation opportunities. I doubt we’ll see Bitcoin at current levels once this rotation plays out.

That said, macro conditions don’t yet support a sustained bull market many are hoping for. So the eventual peak may be brief.