Four year cycle update and what comes next
Here's a table of BTC's price peaks.
| Price Peak Date | Days Since Halving | Days Since Last Peak | Bear Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2013 | 368 | -85% | |
| Dec 16, 2017 | 525 | 1477 | -84% |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 547 | 1424 | -77% |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 535 | 1428 | ? |
In the short term BTC follows tech stocks and other factors, but long term the four year cycle has been surprisingly consistent. This could all be coincidence, but I think it's a self fulfilling prophesy at this point.
Especially given the recent price action, I think it's clear that the high for this cycle was October 7th. The returns between cycle peaks have been lessening over time, but the drawdowns in bear markets have been consistent, with price drops between 77% and 85% to the new lows. If that trend holds then BTC will go under $30K from here.
Maybe this time is different with tradfi involved, and maybe boomers (or taxpayers?) will hold everyone's crypto bags this time around. You should just know what you're up against holding BTC at this point in the cycle.
submitted by /u/MerkleChainsaw
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