My thoughts on a bull market peak for this cycle

After this flash crash we had this past Friday, I've been seeing a ton of stuff about the bull market being over, that there will be no alt season, etc. However, after this flash crash I'm actually more much more bullish now, which I'll elaborate on.

On Friday we saw the mass liquidation of a bunch of dumbasses leverage trading this market thinking that it was just going to go into a Q4 cycle peak with little to no retracement. During this, we also saw big money players stepping in and loading up on the dip. For instance, Tom Lee's Fundstrat buying up almost 1 BILLION $ in ETH. I'm going to disregard Michael Saylor's recent big purchase of BTC, because he is always buying lol. This event was the equivalent of the COVID crash of 2020 and the FTX liquidation crash of November 2022.

Ben Cowen is a very popular youtuber, but I've noticed he is getting a bit weird lately. He kept talking about his ETH target hitting cycle lows, and it "went home" to under .02 to BTC back in April. Meanwhile, he continued to bring up the idea that alts needed to go to .25 of the total market before we would see an alt season. However, now that this happened on Friday, he has completely changed his stance, calling for an ETH top of a little over 5k and no alt season lol. Interestingly, on multiple occasions he has brought up how in the 2017 cycle alts hit this .25 target in November of that year and the peak of alt season was January of 2018.

People are so god damn bearish and fearful, yet BTC is still trading at around 115k, ETH at over 4k and ADA over 70 cents.

Some other variables to consider. The clarity act is still on the table in congress, and once the government shut down ends it's very likely this will pass within the next few weeks. In addition to this, there are further rate cuts on the table and global liquidity is continuing to rise.

What we are seeing is eerily similar to late 2017 and I'm expecting a lot of people to get wrecked. I think what is going to happen is we get a massive rally that seemingly comes out of nowhere. You'll see it talked about all over the news and retail FOMO floods into the crypto space. Things will get beyond euphoric and everyone is going to be convinced it will be a super cycle. I wouldn't be surprised to see BTC at 170k+, ETH at 8k+and some alts doing close to a 10x or more from here. However, the retracement will be just as impressive and happen in a matter of a few weeks.

As for bear market of 2026. I think we will bottom out around 70-80k, this would be slightly above the highs of 2021, the high of March 2024 and the low of April 2025. We could definitely get into the 60k range, but I think the 50k range is a thing of the past. Target highs of the next cycle around 350-400k.