The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle is actually Dead. Here’s Why.

Tl;dr: the classic 4-year Bitcoin cycle might be over. It’s not about halvings anymore.. it’s about liquidity. When the Fed cuts rates and China eases, money flows and Bitcoin rises. The next cycle isn’t on a timer, it’s tied to global policy.

So Arthur Hayes, BitMEX’s cofounder, says the four year Bitcoin cycle that everyone loves to reference might finally be over. And honestly, it makes sense when you look at what’s actually driving markets right now.

Most people still think Bitcoin’s price cycles revolve around halvings, those moments when mining rewards get cut in half every four years. Hayes doesn’t buy it. He says Bitcoin’s movements are tied to one thing above everything else: global liquidity, especially from the United States and China.

When you zoom out, his logic checks out. Bitcoin’s early rallies all lined up with periods of easy money, the Fed’s quantitative easing, China’s massive credit growth, and crashes came right after both started tightening. The 2020 to 2021 bull run was fueled by record stimulus and near zero rates. The 2022 bear market was triggered by the Fed’s fastest rate hikes in decades.

But right now things are shifting again. The Fed already cut rates in September 2025, its first move this cycle, even with inflation still sitting above target. On top of that, the reverse repo balances that had soaked up 2.5 trillion dollars in liquidity since 2022 are basically drained, putting cash right back into markets.

Meanwhile, China is no longer acting as a drag. The People’s Bank of China has been easing rates and reserve requirements to fight off deflation. That combination, looser US policy and mild Chinese stimulus, is a recipe for more liquidity and cheaper money.

Hayes summed it up pretty simply: “Money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise.” It’s not magic or halving cycles anymore, it’s macro.

Some analysts still see patterns that look like the old four year rhythm, but it’s probably just coincidence. The underlying driver has changed. Bitcoin now trades like a liquidity sensitive global asset, not a retail hype machine following a calendar.

If Washington or Beijing suddenly tightened again, Bitcoin would correct hard, halving or not. So instead of obsessing over block rewards and countdown clocks, it might be smarter to watch central bank balance sheets and money supply charts.

The new Bitcoin cycle isn’t four years anymore. It’s whenever the money printers turn on or off.