Sure "nobody knows shit about fuck", and yet people repeat the same mistakes, and the market keeps having familiar things coming back. Not quiet like clockwork, but close enough.

This is just my personal opinion based on what I learned, so take it with a heap of salt.

In bold is the direct answer.

Is the bull cycle over?

With Fed rate cuts just starting? That's highly doubtful.

Plus there's a long list of things going right at the moment.

For a proper crash and a bubble to burst, you first need a proper bubble.

We're probably not that far from it, but this market still needs a little more bubble. Remember, what they say about market irrationality.

When will the bull cycle end and crash?

Fed rates could potentially drag this out longer into early 2026, but don't expect that narrative to stay fresh for too long either.

Ultimately, the sooner we get some big rallies, FOMO, and mania (but milder than previous cycles because of tapering volatility), the closer we will be to a crash.

If this recent rally from $108K to $126K has another leg like that, we won't actually be too far from a proper bubble.

Because the market loves to create self-fulfilled prophecies, I would set your clocks for a crash somewhere between mid-November to mid-January. And clockwork is the one thing that has been somewhat reliable in this market.

Even if everything is rosy at the beginning of 2026, the forces of this market are too strong for a bull market to be extended for too long.

How high Bitcoin will go?

Make sure you don't look at Bitcoin's history linearly, and start looking at the diminishing returns and tapering down of its volatility. It's a curve.

Now that we're deep in the bull market, the fog is beginning to lift.

For me the sweet spot of that peak is between $129K-$149K. If I had to go with an exact price: $136.9K.

I hope I'm not underestimating FOMO here, and overplaying the "tapering down" narrative.

$150K target seems too popular now.

What about alt season? That's never gonna happen right?

Has no one else seen the glimpses and foreshadowing last November?

It was very revealing about the nature of the market and how it still behaves with alts. With just enough FOMO in the market, you get people panic buying alts.

The market has been a little more tamed since, with only one other little injection of FOMO and another alt rally during the summer.

A lower mania phase at the end of Bitcoin's bullrun could spell a milder and shorter alt season.

So this alt season could really be milder with ETH staying under $6K, but other major alts getting maybe only 30%-100% rallies, and a few lucky ones maybe getting 2x-3x. This in a scenario where Bitcoin only hits $136.9K.

If we get some big BTC mania rally, then yes, there will be some big alt rallies. Why? Because people are greedy.

What about the bear winter, is it gonna be as brutal as usual?

Bitcoin should see its mildest winter. With a maximum drop down by only 60%-70%.

But what about MSTR, ETFs, big institutions and governments?

If that stuff implodes, it could create some shit show at maybe a higher level than FTX and LUNA.