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I pulled global broad money (M2-style, proxy weighted US/EU/China) and compared it to major asset classes from 2015–2025. Then I asked the obvious question: who actually beat global liquidity growth?
Charts included:
- Cumulative outperformance vs Broad Money (including Bitcoin)
- Same, but without Bitcoin (for scale clarity)
- Equal-weight proxies (S&P 500 EW, NASDAQ 100 EW) → shows the story without MAG7 (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia & Tesla) dominance
Key Findings:
- Bitcoin: absolute monster. +13,000% over broad money since 2015.
- NASDAQ / S&P 500 (cap-weighted): steady excess returns, NASDAQ far ahead due to tech.
- Gold: modest but positive real outperformance (~+30%).
- US Real Estate: basically tracked liquidity, slightly negative after inflation.
- US Treasuries: crushed in real terms since 2021 rate cycle.
- Equal-weight indices: show how much MAG7 drove the rally. Strip them out and equity outperformance shrinks sharply, though still positive vs liquidity.
TL;DR
If your benchmark is global money supply growth, only Bitcoin and tech equities delivered serious real outperformance. Gold gave a small edge. Housing just matched liquidity. Bonds lost. Equal-weight charts highlight the MAG7 effect. Without them, equities look a lot less shiny.
submitted by /u/Romanizer
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