How close are we to a BTC supply shock?

Given the fixed supply cap of 21 million Bitcoin and the ongoing accumulation by long-term holders, institutional investors and ETFs, how close are we to witnessing a significant supply shock in the Bitcoin market? Considering current on chain data such as declining exchange balances, miner reserves, and the growing number of illiquid wallets, could we be approaching a tipping point where demand vastly outpaces available supply, triggering a sharp price reaction. How close are we to a BTC supply shock?