Following past trends, the expectation would be closer to or below $70K, and even lower from all the bad news.

Why hasn't Bitcoin reacted more like in the past?

There's still time for it to happen, but I feel like the clock is ticking, while the bad news is quickly losing its freshness.

April 2nd is next week, and after that uncertainty is gone, and if it didn't manage to tank Bitcoin, the peak fear could run out of steam if there's not something new to create more uncertainty.

Here's why I thought we would go much lower by now:

First off, Bitcoin is simply very volatile.

For every major leg and major rally, there is always a big brutal correction, even in the middle of a bullrun:

Rallies and corrections during the 2017 bullrun

In 2021, we even had a -55% correction in the middle of the bullrun:

Mid-bullrun -55% drop.

We just had a super combo of fear:

-Tariff wars.

-Fear of recession.

-Inflation heating up again.

-Fear of stagflation.

-Consumer confidence dropping.

-Stocks having one of their toughest month.

-Delayed rate cuts.

-The biggest crypto hack on Bybit.

In 2021, it only took Elon backtracking and China's ban of miners to tank the market by over 50%.

What is happening?

We just had the stock market close on Friday with one of the roughest weeks, and Bitcoin is still chilling above $80K, not even looking close to hitting -38%.

I get that volatility decreases in each cycles, but would the market also not react as much to bad news?

It's not like time is the issue either. Some of these bad news are several weeks old now, and the fear is starting to lose its freshness.

There's still one more bloody Sunday before April 2nd. And maybe April 2nd will have a much worse announcement than expected.