About a year ago, I began sharing my insights on Grayscale's ETHE and GBTC fund, especially when I observed a significant discount gap to NAV that seemed like an enticing opportunity. (For those interested, you can check out those posts on my profile).

My bet on discount gap closing

When ETHE had a 35% discount, I began investing, gradually increasing my stake until I was fully invested when the discount reached around 54%. On average, the discount I secured for ETHE was about ~50%.

Here's my sheet for tracking the performance of this bet:

https://preview.redd.it/rdvztfix3hnb1.jpg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c6552cd10a5d5d2ddae9f37fff4c1014646e5778

• Up by 52.08% compared to B&H ETH
• Discount gap narrowed to -23.41%
• Original investment I converted about 382 ETH, which now worth around 581 ETH
• If the discount gap closes completely, I'm looking at an additional ~30% on top of ETH

Proof of my ETHE Holdings:

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https://preview.redd.it/urko8r8z3hnb1.jpg?width=388&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e6148c5b14cf52e587ffb5c156ee80969fd931d5

What happened since I first posted on this?

When I first posted about this, some were quick to dismiss my strategy. There were skeptics labeling Grayscale and Coinbase as scams, saying what I purchased is worthless IOUs, while some couldn't be bothered to spend a few minute to read through my posts and evaluate the potential I saw.

However, a few months later, the winds have shifted. BlackRock filed for its Bitcoin ETF and chosed Coinbase as its custodian. Other applicants have followed suit, with a few opting for Coinbase as custody as well. More significantly, Grayscale recently won its court case against the SEC, paving the way for GBTC to potentially become an ETF. And just this week, Cboe BZX announced its application for the first spot ETH ETF.

A key factor I've always emphasized is the sentiment-driven nature of the discount. Fears, emotions, and market news can significantly sway this gap. Contrary to popular belief, I didn't need GBTC to transform into an ETF to see profitability.

And the anticipated bull run event has not even started yet.

Time to take profit

Anyway, I am guessing it is very possible the discount on NAV can actually turned into premium on NAV when the greed emotions kick in again on next bull run, and I plan to start taking profit gradually from now, so there probably won't have another update on this bet.