The four year cycle theory.

For a while now theres alot of talk in here about the "next bull run" and often theres mention of the four year cycle.

a significant part of the four year cycle theory comes from the BTC halving event.
Aproximitly every 4 years the rewards for mining bitcoins are halved and so half amount of the coins will be created henche creating scarcity wich should lead to prices going up.

So first on wich dates did BTC previous halving events happen?

– First halving , November 28 , 2012

– Second halving , July 9 , 2016

– Third halving, May 11, 2020

– upcoming : ETA in 2024.

And when were the previous bullruns ?

I'm going to focus mainly on BTC PA cause the rest of the market tends to follow BTC

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The first bullrun 2013

Bitcoin was stable around 150$ till half october where it exploded to nearly $1200.

Chart: BTC 2013 , Source : Coinmarketcap

This happened aproximitly one year after the first halving.

if we look at this timestamp multiple events occured before this bullrun:

– theres the banking crisis in Cyprus

– Bots Markus and Willy,

– increased demand for BTC from china and the overal popularity of BTC growing.

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The second bullrun 2017.

A significant rise from $1100 to $19500

Chart : BTC 2017 Source: Coinmarketcap

Again this happened after nearly a year after the 2nd Halving.

Other notable events during this timestamp :

-The increasing of cryptoexchanges and the emergence of levering features

– the adoption and implementation of stablecoins

– Etherium and its smart contract technology

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The third bullrun in 2020

a rise from $8000 to $39,300

Chart: BTC 2020 , Source : Coinmarketcap

This is the first bullrun where the price went up less than 6 months after the halving.

other notable events during this timestamp:

– Various DeFi projects are getting recognition

– NFTs and GameFi are kicking off

-Institutional investors and banks are accepting bitcoin as an investment.

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Next bullrun in 2024-2025?

while the previous bullruns did happen within a year after BTC's halving i feel like theres need for multiple events to trigger another bullrun like previous ones. the bullruns often goes hand in hand with release of new technology attracting new retail investors.

i think its purely coincidence its happened every 4 years but time will tell if theres something magic about the four year halving cycle and if there will be another run coming in 2024-2025 and i will be here as a witness and investor.