BTC’s halving is always the thing to spark a bull run, everything else is a side quest

And after the halving finally happens, the next big thing is the next halving.

It has become common in this community for people to accommodate some events such as listings of new coins, ETF fillings etc as big events that will spark the next run. Some people even line these events up to come up with such narrative, when in fact the thing that actually sparks a bull run is Bitcoin's halving. It goes as follows:

1. BTC halves, causing the mining rewards to be cut by half;
2. The supply entering the market is down by 50%, but the demand stays more or less the same for some time. There are no price effects so far;
3. The market starts to regulate: with demand the same but a decreased supply, a supply shock happens;
4. Price starts to go up, but the bull run has not started yet. This is just the effect of supply and demand;
5. The naturally-increasing price will start to appear in the media, making headlines. People not into BTC will start to research for it;
6. After a few more price increases, the FOMO starts, and the bull run is ignited.

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The figure below illustrates the relation between halving and ATH's, which coincides with the whole market pumping:

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https://preview.redd.it/f0727vue0qgb1.png?width=630&format=png&auto=webp&s=2781e5201b702113d071e53176af6f7cf465f6b7

Small pumps from other coins are not any indicative of a bull run. The good news is that we're months away from the next halving and – trust me – current prices will look a no-brainer a couple years from now.

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DCA and be safe.

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