Key dates and timeline for the Bitcoin spot ETFs

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Bitcoin Spot ETFs Timeline

Quick refresher… Grayscale sued the SEC last year for not letting them convert GBTC to a spot ETF. The court decision is due out any time in the next few weeks/months and it would pave the way for a potential spot ETF if successful.

The SEC still has grounds to reject, but experts suggest Grayscale have up to an 80% chance of winning their lawsuit.

If they are successful, the probability that BlackRock's application is approved shoots up. BlackRock filing now is NOT a coincidence! ARK/21shares also filed for a spot bitcoin ETF in April 2023.

First key date : Aug 12, the most likely outcome is a delay from the SEC but they could also just approve it, allowing BlackRock first mover advantage.
Second key date : Sept 26, a rejection/delay at this stage would be short-term bearish but the SEC could approve an ETF at any given time now technically… they don't have to wait for the key dates to play out and approve.
Third key date : Dec 25, if Spot ETFs are delayed BTC will most likely chop around
Final date : Feb 23 2024, If Spot ETFs are rejected then BTC will most likely go lower, Alts will get crushed and we're gonna have to wait for clear regulation before things can turn around in the US and crypto M&A will most likely happen.

Let's buckle up buttercups!