How does the Ethereum Network detect malicious behavior such as double signing, what is the probability of this being detected, and how does someone benefit from small-scale malicious acts?

I am currently writing my bachelors thesis in which I try to analyze blockchain incentives using game theory. Unfortunately, I have not been able to find any sources that state the likelihood of experiencing consequences (penalties & slashing) for double signing and false attestation of blocks that feature fraudulent transactions. In this context, I also find it difficult to find sources that state the advantage someone obtains from acting maliciously on a small scale (anything less then a 51% attack). Does anyone have any idea where to find this information?

Thank you guys in advance! Best regards