As promised, here are some stats and charts from the database of first-gen Reddit avatar financial performance I posted yesterday (you can find the database, stats, charts, and source file for stats and charts here).

After a lot of messing around with different summaries and groupings, I found that grouping the data by the rarity tier (defined below) of the NFT painted the clearest picture.

TL:DR: On average, the low-rarity NFTs had the highest returns (20.8X), followed by the high-rarity (18.3X), with the lowest returning NFTs being in the medium-rarity tier (8.2X). When you look at medians, the story changes a bit with high-rarity taking the lead (11.2X), then low (9.1X), then medium (4.1X).

Feel free to download the .ipynb file from the link above and mess around with things yourself!

Rarity Tiers

• High: supply < 300
• Medium: 300 ≤ supply < 700
• Low: supply > 700

Charts

Rarity vs. Fold Return Boxplots

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https://preview.redd.it/dpng46bwsvu91.png?width=571&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b5a5ebe41811d1f9429936bfaad7495eb376ec6

Fold Return Proportion by Rarity (Overlapped Histograms)

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https://preview.redd.it/2j8sorfxsvu91.png?width=576&format=png&auto=webp&s=fb8879b972fe393e15b1b6718f86b5d378306c91

Stats by Rarity Tier

High

Fold Return

• Average: 18.3X
• 25th percentile: 6.1X
• 75th percentile: 17.4X
• Median: 11.2X

Medium

Fold Return

• Average: 8.2X
• 25th percentile: 3.2X
• 75th percentile: 12.1X
• Median: 4.1X

Low

Fold Return

• Average: 20.8X
• 25th percentile: 4.6X
• 75th percentile: 27.9X
• Median: 9.1X