Why Are People Seemingly Ignoring the Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Crypto Prices?

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Why Are People Seemingly Ignoring the Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Crypto Prices?

There have been countless headlines from the last week or so declaring that Crypto is dead, the bubble is popping, etc.

As someone who has a mathematics and finance background, in my view it's quite obvious what is happening here –

1) In the past few years, crypto has become much more mainstream. Consequently, a lot of the big players in the space are also major investors in broader equity markets

2) Consequently, movements in crypto have become more and more in line with the stock market

3) We can think of crypto as a class as a high positive beta asset – essentially, crypto is viewed as riskier than the market overall (I agree), which means it tends to swing in the same direction as the overall market but at bigger magnitudes. All else equal, if the stock market goes up 2%, Bitcoin might go up 10% (completely made up numbers).

4) There have been a huge amount of macroeconomic policy changes in the past month that have spooked the equity markets. Consequently, the S&P500 has been on a downswing the entire month.

5) Because crypto is a high-beta asset, it has followed suit. Since Jan 1st, the S&P 500 is down about 8%, Bitcoin is down ~27%

Nothing has changed in the past month about the fundamentals of cryptocurrencies – if, for example, there had been a security flaw found in Bitcoin, or an extremely strict regulation introduction, then that microeconomic influence would explain a decoupling of performance between the S&P500 and Bitcoin.

Does anyone else share this viewpoint?

TL;DR: Stocks go down, Bitcoin go down more.

submitted by /u/Crypto_Actuary
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