Hashrate vs Shares/m

Someone with a good knowledge/experience in mining, I would appreciate picking your brain

Firstly, I know shares are random and minute per minute are meaningless, but it seems like the average shares per minute over the course of 24 hours would have meaning (on the same pool), and that leads me to my question.

I have two overclocks, both produce about 31 MH/s on my 3070s

1: Core +0, Mem: +1700, PL: 85

This OC gives me 31 MH/s and uses around 190w, temps average around 45 

2: Core +110, Mem: +1700 PL: 70

This OC gives me 31 MH/s and uses around 150w, temps average around 41 

3: locked core: 1300, Mem: 1700, PL 100 (untouched)

(This OC performs basically the same as OC 2, only provided it for a locked core reference)

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If I go by MH, they should produce similar results, but they seem to not.

There are a few other variations of the OC but essentially; if I set my PL too low (below 180w), I start to lose coins regardless of Hashrate.

I have switch back and forth multiple times over the past few weeks and the outcomes are consistent.

OC 1 overages 15-25% more shares per minute (on average over 24 hours) than OC 2 or 3.

This difference translates directly into revenue, meaning on OC 1 I will make around 70-80 coins a day per card and OC 2 only makes 55-65.

I have watched many videos on OCing for Kawpow, which are all over the place but, they all focus on MH "If you can lower voltage and keep MH… do it".

Part of me thinks I am over thinking daily variations and the mining gods are just messing with me, but I keep trying both OCs and am seeing a consistent pattern.

This is consistent on the 3 cards I am running and would like to get my Wattage down as much as possible… without losing coins.

Knowledge from someone with more experience than me would be appreciated.