This is the monthly chart of bitcoin since inception, what patterns we can spot from this graph that help us predict what can happen next?

• Bitcoin goes through cycles, in which bitcoin have phases where prices go parabolic (bull-runs), then it is followed by a correction (bear market).
• As you can see, Bitcoin grow logarithmically with time.

Bitcoin cycles since inception

• Cycles tend to extend over time, meaning that each cycle will take more time than the previous cycle.

Bitcoin cycles extend through time

• Bitcoin return on investment decrease over time.

Bitcoin ROI from market cycle bottom

If you think about it, it actually make sense to have diminishing returns and lengthening cycles. It takes more time and money to move bitcoin from 10k-100k than it takes to move bitcoin from 10$-100$ although it is the same increase in percentage.

What triggers a bull-run?

Usually, the bitcoin halving event triggers increase in price over a long time frame due to the scarcity of the available asset. However, There is a "Golden Cross" that triggers a bull-market. Which is when the 50-day exponential moving average cross over the 200-day exponential moving average. That is usually a bullish signal when given that these exponential moving averages holds as support.

2012 Golden Cross

2015 Golden Cross

2020 Golden Cross

Most of these information I learned through YouTube, specifically a guy named Benjamin Cowen. You guys can search him up his channel is really helpful. All credits to him.

This post is to state the long term trends of the crypto asset class, previous trend doesn't guarantee the continuation of these trends. it is not a financial advice.