Like many of you from the 2017/2018 era of bag holders, I've been watching BTC for a "blow off top," in other words, a clear indicator when the bubble has burst and the cycle is done.

We have all the other signs of a bubble; crazy highs on alt-coins, BTC dominance down, huge drops on BTC and ETH, less comments and content here, sentiment shift on social media, celebrities endorsing scams, etc.

But where was the top? Where was that clear peak? I'll tell you where: it was on ETH. Why? ETH doesn't have the institutional buying power behind it (yet) and so it can be a more clear example of retail market psychology.

2017/2018 bubble

Let's have a look at 2017/2018 BTC bubble to see how it played out:

A clear peak, with some dead cat bounces on the way down when everyone was slowly being shaken out

2021 ETH bubble

Now, let's compare that to the ETH chart so far:

Very similar to the BTC run of 2017/2018. Same 'first selloff' on the way up and same 'complacency' after the peak

Summary

Many of us had no idea what to look for in 2017/2018 and were seduced by talk of "$100k this year!" while the vets back then sold their bags and passed the torch to us as the next generation of bag holder.

Both charts are textbook examples of:

https://preview.redd.it/dvzru4597b771.png?width=1103&format=png&auto=webp&s=264cefbf2fe5dece7a0dbbf0dcd173ad719e5a60

Today, the same thing is playing out, but some people are still positive (and can be positive) because they cite, "no clear blow off top" as a reason for why the run will continue, because they must see that peak and fall before they can really declare the cycle over and the bubble popped.

My argument is that we've had it, we've had it on ETH. You won't see it on BTC because there are bigger players involved with BTC right now who've made sure that it doesn't paint this clear picture – because if everyone sees that rise and fall as clear as they did in 2017/2018 then there won't be any other excuse or reason to say, "$100k this year!"

This is not financial advice.