Can someone explain why no one knows how much EIP-1559 will burn in fees?

Everyone is speculation, but if its open source, can they not get a really good idea?

i mean the avg block is 0.5 ETH in fees, (give or take) Total rewards are around 2.5 ETH .

How come no one knows for sure how much its going to burn? Everything i try to google on the matter is filled with Youtubers looking to get clicks on 45 min video, or podscasts.. Why isnt there a straight forward answer?