This time it’s different? I’ve been through 2 cycles and here’s the main reason I think it won’t be.
I've seen more and more people post that they really believe that history won't repeat itself, we won't follow the usual market patterns of euphoric markets with a big crash eventually followed by a bear market.
Some even say there won't be any crash nor a bear market.
The assumption is that because there is now more institutional money there won't be a crash, and those big investors won't allow a bear market.
Are institutional investors immune to crashes and bear markets? Just look at the stock market…
Here is the main reason things won't be that different:
These people aren't a whole lot smarter nor do they have special trading abilities. They are new to the market and will behave like anyone new to this market.
We have a lot of new people coming in into this markey. And they are behaving exactly the same way as we did when we first came in.
And they are repeating all the same mistakes we made. Including buying things like Safemoon, despite the red flags and warnings.
They are buying all the coins we bought and regreted, ETC, TRX, EOS, …despite all the info and us warning them. It's like it's impossible to keep the wave of new people from repeating all the same mistakes. Fate seems unstoppable.
On a larger scale, it looks like we are once again repeating the halving pattern, with a similar chart, with the bull run starting like clockwork after the halvening.
And people are still making the same fomo mistakes on the way up, then paper-handing when there is a small dip, causing more dramatic dips. We still have that same high dramatic volatilty, despite intitutional money, and despite the fact that people should have learned from past cycles.
But it is becoming increasingly evident that they haven't. It doesn't look like new people are doing enough research before jumping in. Even the big money. Have you seen Mark Cuban talk about crypto? And that's who the mass media listens to.
You can change the players and the amount of money all you want, it won't change human behavior.
That's why I think this time it won't be different. And while it won't be identical, and we may have maybe a longer bull market, the patterns are gonna be the same, the crash will happen, we'll have a bear market, people will make all the same mistakes, and history will rhyme again.