Summary

Hi all, it's your friendly data science guy! There are many opinions on how high ETH can reach this cycle, so I looked at the data to get a better answer.

In 2017:

• ETH Dominance (ETH/Total Crypto Cap) ranged from 9% to 18% (peak) to 30% (July 2017)
• ETH/BTC ranged from 0.007 to 0.1 (peak) to 0.15 (June 2017)
• ETH was overvalued by ~4096% in 2018 peak relative to logarithmic regression

In 2021

• ETH Dominance (ETH/Total Crypto Cap) held at 7%
• ETH/BTC held at 0.016

Takeaways

• If we look at ETH Dominance and ETH/BTC tables below, the average of the likely scenarios in red box are in the upper 8k range
  • The total crypto market cap went up by 55x from 2013 peak (15B) to 2017 peak (830B)
  • In 2021, it is certainly not impossible for crypto market cap to go up 5-10x from 2017 peak
• ETH will likely hit a resistance at 1T market cap. Given that this market cycle is faster than last cycle, its possible that we will peak out sooner in ~Aug/Sep. ETH at 1T market cap (adjusted for increased supply) in Aug is 8,511
• If we look at ETH Log regression in August and apply a similar over-valuation, it puts ETH at 7,805
• The most likely outcome is that ETH will reach ~8k this cycle and any higher is statistically unlikely.

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Details

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ETH Dominance

ETH/BTC ratio vs BTC Price

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ETH Log Regression fitted to non-bubble data

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Bitcoin Cycles compared (shows how current cycle is moving faster than last cycle)