BTC Technical Analysis Update – 11pm UTC 4/19

So, people seemed to like my first post. Can't say I got a lot of votes for it, but I did get a lot of people asking some really great questions. So… what the heck, I'll throw a few more out there and see if anyone cares about them and/or disagrees. I don't have time to add cool charts and graphs tonight, but here are my thoughts:

(and yes, these are specific to BTC. I don't do altcoins.)

The support level is $55k, for certain. It has held support there consistently for almost one month (since 3/29), if you exclude the brief dip the other night as positions were liquidated… and then 20 minutes later, we came back to the $55k support. 20 minutes.

That support has been tested again around 4/7, and during the crash on 4/17, and then again today around mid-day US time, and each time it dipped under $55k, it rallied back rather quickly. (I think it was kind of a Monday hangover effect.)

As far as resistance…

At the moment the order stack looks tough at $57k. Someone has a limit order out there to sell $3.5MM worth if we hit $57k. That said, the whales often "spoof" the market (this market isn't as regulated as some) and I wouldn't be surprised to see that order vanish if we get close.

But apart from that, I'm seeing smooth sailing until we hit $60k-ish which is both a technical level and a psychological level. It is technical on at least 3 things. Doing old-school charting, something damn near $60k is about the midpoint of the trading range. RSI using my method is still showing slightly oversold, and we are solidly under the 20-day SMA until we get close to $60k. Obviously $60k is going to be psychological.

So, FWIW — (TL; DR) — In my personal opinion (and I am NOT a financial advisor), I think the downside is quite limited to the upside right here, and might be for a while. So get long, and hold until we get closer to that $60k wall that will surely be built.

And if you like this stuff, let me know! Or if you have questions, I'll try my best to reply. If you hate it, let me know as well, and I'll stop doing it.

-TJ

EDIT: Unless I wasn't clear enough, we will almost certainly stall for a bit at $57k. We have a large offer stack there, and that is also one SD under the SMA.