I ran the Moon numbers, can someone check because I think distribution is gonna take a while. Maybe everyone should calm down a bit.

I love numbers, data and making spreadsheets. I'm an absolute whore for crypto numbers, charts graphs and predictions.I've got spreadsheets from 2017 when I ran a bot on Binance that worked well in the bull market but then died on its arse in the bear. I wish I'd labelled the spreadsheet better because I cant understand what the fuck I was calculating.

Anyway, there is a whole load of Moon information flying around so I wanted to dig a bit deeper and see what I could figure out.

This is what I think I know about Moons from posts and comments on here:

• Max supply is 250,000,000
• Initial allocation of 50,000,000
• Then starting at 5,000,000 per round reducing by 2.5% each round
• Half of that 5,000,000 is distributed to the sub, allocated per karma.
• I'm not entirely sure where the other half goes, admin/mods/liquidity/burned?

I think that's all accurate, please correct me if I messed up. I don't have any sources to post right now but can get some if anyone wants them, reddit search sucks so it might take a while

So I gathered the data and made a spreadsheet:

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Initial allocation to round 11

The running total part is where I cant work out what's going on. The sidebar says that the current total Moons is 57,389,833. But none of the numbers no matter what calculation I do will arrive at that figure. The ratio's I'm getting match up with other peoples calcs so I think my numbers are good.

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Then there is this graph supplied by the admins:

Moon distribution graph

I took the graph from this post about burning Moons.

Something just didn't sit right with me about the curve and how the consensus from it is that the max supply will be reached by 2035. With the decrease of 2.5% each round I'd expect a much wider graph and a whole load of relatively straight line before we reach 250M.

So I ran the numbers some more:

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This is the next 11 rounds

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In 2023 we drop below 1,000,000 per round

Then we get to 2035:

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We're close to the supply cap, but not quite.

So my initial thoughts about the graph were right, we're gonna get a straightish line for ages.

2044 we drop below 1000 moons per round

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2065 we drop below 1 moon per round

Then on and on and on, until finally in ~60 years

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2080 we hit the max

Moons have 18 decimals, so this could probably go on longer. I could add a decimal to the total column but I think I proved my point.

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Everyone always says to get some perspective you need to zoom out.

So lets zoom out on the Moon distribution graph from my numbers.

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Graph of the running total of Moon distribution

From the resolution of Excel on my screen we straight line from around 2039.

I don't know about you but I'll be long dead before the Moons run out.

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Is this accurate can any mods or admins confirm? I'm more than happy to redo my spreadsheet because I fucking love it.

"Time making a spreadsheet is seldom wasted" Me – Circa 2021

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Thanks for attending my Ted Talk

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Edit:

I've found out how the allocation works, this mod post says

The issuance is scheduled to be 5,000,000 per month dropping 2.5% each month until a max supply of 250,000,000 is hit (including burned moons). Reddit keeps 20%, the mods get 10%, and 20% is reserved for the broader reddit community with the remaining 50% being distributed to contributors.

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