What happens to Bitcoin when options expire each month (Data from 2018-2021).

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What happens to Bitcoin when options expire each month (Data from 2018-2021).

What happens to Bitcoin when options expire each month (Data from 2018-2021).

I was at this thread the other day "This is what happens to Bitcoin when options expires each month," and was curious what it looked it since late 2017-2021. I was curious if there were any patterns in between the BTC Futures' Expiration dates. Bear with me on this (pun intended). This is my first time using a chart. I just needed a line to mark the BTC Futures Expiration Dates (BTCFED).

Jan 2018- Dec 2018

2018 BTC Future Expiration Dates & Chart (Trading View) [1]

The chart above showcases the BTCFED indicated by the blue lines. The schedule below is a schedule listing BTC's price 3-7 days before and after the BTCFED. I wanted to examine if there are any patterns of movements pivoting to each BTCFED numerically. The movements are highlighted with their 'Gain' or 'Loss.' Limitation on this findings is that I did not define the significance of the movements.

BTC Price: 3, 7 Days Before and After BTCFED (2018) [2]

The basic findings for the 2018 figures were:

  1. 7 Days Before BTCFED: 7/12 times: Loss
  2. 3 Days Before BTCFED: 7/12 times: Loss.
  3. 3 Days After BTCFED: 7/12 times: Gain.
  4. 7 Days After BTCFED: 7/12 times: Loss.

Jan 2019- Dec 2019

2019 BTC Future Expiration Dates & Chart (Trading View) [1]

The above showcases the 2019 BTC Chart, and the BTCFED markings. The schedule below shows the BTC pricing for 2019, and the 3-7 Days of before and after the BTCFED to examine the movement patterns.

BTC Price: 3, 7 Days Before and After BTCFED (2019) [2]

The basic findings for the 2019 figures were:

  1. 7 Days Before BTCFED: 6/12 times: Gain/Loss
  2. 3 Days Before BTCFED: 7/12 times: Loss.
  3. 3 Days After BTCFED: 6/12 times: Gain/Loss
  4. 7 Days After BTCFED: 6/12 times: Gain/Loss.

Jan 2020- Dec 2020

2020 BTC Future Expiration Dates & Chart (Trading View) [1]

The above is the chart for 2020. There are massive jumps if I compile 2020 and 2021 together. This allows us to see slightly better patterns. It may not be clear but because the jump went from USD 5,900+ to 28,000+ USD in a year. The schedule below is the BTC pricing for 2020;

BTC Price: 3, 7 Days Before and After BTCFED (2020) [2]

BTC Price: 3, 7 Days Before and After BTCFED (2021) [2]

The basic findings for the 2020 figures were:

  1. 7 Days Before BTCFED: 7/12 times: Gain.
  2. 3 Days Before BTCFED: 6/12 times: Gain/Loss.
  3. 3 Days After BTCFED: 8/12 times: Gain
  4. 7 Days After BTCFED: 11/1 times: Gain.

Jan 2021- Mar 2021

2020 BTC Future Expiration Dates & Chart (Trading View) [1]

I've included the 2021 chart YTD, and the future BTCFED. More information on it can be retrieved from Reference #1 (Barchart).

BTC Price: 3, 7 Days Before and After BTCFED (2021) [2]

Findings for 2021 Schedule feels a bit inconclusive right now, but-

  1. 7 Days Before BTCFED: 3/3 times: Loss.
  2. 3 Days Before BTCFED: 3/3 times: Loss.
  3. 3 Days After BTCFED: 1/2 times: Gain/Loss.
  4. 7 Days After BTCFED: 2/2 times: Gain.

Interpretation:

Well, I honestly don't know how to conclude this study- but if we compile the available data from all BTCFED, and BTC Prices 3-7 days before and after; this is what we get;

  1. 7 Days Before BTCFED: 20: Loss / 18 Gains
  2. 3 Days Before BTCFED: 22 Loss / 16 Gains
  3. 3 Days After BTCFED: 16 Loss / 22 Gains
  4. 7 Days After BTCFED: 14 Loss / 24 Gains

I leave the rest of the interpretation up to you guys. I was searching for 'Max Pain Point,' all I've got so far was on the March 2021 data, nothing from the previous years. Maybe someone with a bit more qualitative experience could carry forward on the same topic.

Disclaimer: I have no experience reading/plotting graphs/charts. Might probably learn it soon- but one thing for sure, I'm interested to learn more about crypto. & as I post this, it's 5AM here in Southeast Asia, but seeing a lot of 'RemindMe!' made me kind of eager to put this out and see where it goes. The data I've gathered were from 2 references, as below.

Reference:

[1] Barchart, Dates of BTC Futures Expiration Dates:
Source: https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/BTH21/historical-prices

[2] Coindesk, Bitcoin Price (Dec, 2017-Mar, 2021)
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin

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