There will be a next bear market.

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There will be a next bear market.

I've seen a lot of people here simply thinking that "THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT", and that we won't have another bear market. Or if we are going to have another bear market, it isn't going to be like the previous ones. Well, let's dissect this…

"THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT": yes, you are right, this time is indeed different. For the first time we have institutions buying Bitcoin, we have big companies buying Bitcoin, it is getting a lot of mainstream adoption. But don't ignore the fact that there will be a point where most of retail is going to FOMO into Bitcoin, filling the market with "weak hands", while the "strong hands understand the long game, and understand that it comes to a point where it is unsustainable growth.

We see this already in Grayscale. Grayscale hasn't been buying BTC for the last month. Their 30D change is actually -545 BTC (Don't worry, they sell to cover fees and other things, they are not dumping). So what we are currently seeing is a slower institution adoption. Institutions are not going to FOMO in. They let retail do that, and then they wait for us to panic.

I see soo much shilling on the daily discussion, it is obnoxious. Mostly because I know that this is short term. All those coins that are today, tomorrow, next week, pumping 100%, will be tanking 95% before you finish saying "DIAMOND HANDS". Believe me, everything is sunshine and rainbows when we are in a Bull Market.

We will have another Bear Market. Sorry for breaking it to you. But let me explain my thesis on the Bear Market:

There will be a point where institutions are going to stop buying BTC, they know that we are due a correction. They have their positions already, and now they are just going to be patient. Retail is still going to be on the mindset of "THIS IS IT, WE ARE NEVER GOING DOWN. BUY BUY BUY". Price shoots up. A lot of people are making life changing wealth. A lot of people are going to buy the top. Price starts dropping, like we've seen in these past days. A lot of people are going to panic. They sell at a loss. People are going to buy the 30% dip because it is "normal" (and it is). But it keeps dipping.

WAIT, I CAN'T PAY MY RENT! More people that bought the dip with money they couldn't afford to lose have to sell. Long positions keep getting liquidated. Price keeps moving down. It's not looking good.

Now the market is driven by fear. A lot of people are selling. Institutions aren't (probably). And a very small percentage of people that were screaming "DIAMOND HANDS" in this bull market are now shaking, and selling at a huge loss. The bear market is in progress. Institutions will be buying again. And HODLers too.

This is my thesis. What is yours?

This is why I mainly stick with coins that already have had that institutional adoption that I am talking about, and I am not looking for the next "LOW CAP GEM 😱🚀"

Have a great rest of your week. Remember to keep your mental health in check!

submitted by /u/Kawalele
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