So what is the theoretical maximum value of Bitcoin? A mathematical analysis
I've seen a few people throwing around the idea of a Million dollar bitcoin at some point in the future. Is such a thing possible? Is there enough wealth in the world to make such a thing happen? What would that even look like?
Well, let's run some quick math and take a look:
The Million Dollar Bitcoin
A million dollar Bitcoin would make Bitcoin's market cap of 21 Million total Bitcoins worth $21,000,000,000,000, or 21 Trillion USD.
If we assume a BTC Dominance which remains at about 60%, this would make the entire Crypto Market worth 35 Trillion Dollars.
The Current US Stock market has a total value of about 51 Trillion Dollars, as of December 31st, 2020 (Source).
This would put the entire Cryptocurrency Market Space at approximately 69% the value of the 2020 US Stock Market; this would be an increase of roughly 17x from the Cryptocurrency market's almost 2 Trillion Dollar current value.
So, turns out, a one-million dollar Bitcoin is actually numerically rather possible, and within the realm of reality given a long enough time frame.
But let's go farther. What other huge numbers would be theoretically possible for Bitcoin. What would it look like if Cryptocurrency actually became the currency/base of value in the 21st century?
( The following examples keep the 60% BTC Dominance rate, for the purposes of math. )
If Crypto grows to the size of the entire 2020 US Stock market, one Bitcoin would have a price of $1,451,671.67 ( Almost 1.5 Million Dollars )
If Crypto grows to the size of all stock markets in the world of 2020 (~90 Trillion), one Bitcoin would be worth $2,571,428.57 ( About 2.5 Million Dollars )
If Crypto grows to the size of all "money" assets in the world of 2020 (~215 Trillion), one Bitcoin would be worth $6,142,857.14 ( A little over 6 Million Dollars )
If Crypto somehow subsumed all value of all assets in the world of 2020, at high end estimates ( 1.2 Quadrillion USD ), one Bitcoin would be worth $34,286,714.28 ( A little over 34 Million Dollars )
Oh, and one last fun one:
- Bitcoin 'only' has to grow to ~300,000 USD per Bitcoin in order to be worth more in market cap than the entire global banking industry of 2020.
A Million Dollar BTC is honestly a lot more "realistic" than I expected, with the entire crypto space not even overtaking Wall Street in value unless BTC Dominance dropped immensely.
However, on the other hand, once you reach closer to the magical One Million Dollar mark, there's really very little room for the Crypto Market cap to grow beyond that ( comparatively ), and it would very likely represent the last 'order of magnitude' growth BTC would see, outside of fiat inflationary reasons. In short, returns would likely look much more like traditional stocks at that point.
In a slightly more grounded reality, however, it seems very likely that the current ~50-100K bracket for BTC will be the last 'jumping off point' to still see any potential for 10x returns on BTC itself (and even that represents massive adoption for BTC as an asset overall). Once the price starts climbing into the $100-200k+ range, there's just not enough money sloshing around in the world of investments to see insane gains anymore.