Key Takeaways: BMAX is the first-of-its-kind ETF designed for that purpose, giving exposure to companies with Bitcoin on their balance sheets via convertible bonds. The fund seeks to offer a combination of fixed income stability and optionality in equity upside, attracting interest from investors looking for nontraditional Bitcoin exposure. Investors should be aware of BMAX’s…
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Ether risks another decline below $1,900, which may open up a significant amount of investor demand, which may catalyze Ether’s recovery from its three-month downtrendEther (ETH) price fell over 52% during its three-month downtrend after it peaked above $4,100 on Dec. 16, 2024, TradingView data shows.While another correction below $1,900 is on the horizon, this may unleash significant buying pressure, according to Juan Pellicer, senior research analyst at IntoTheBlock.ETH/USD, 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView“Onchain metrics reveal a robust demand zone for ETH just below $1,900,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:“Historically, around 4.3 million ETH were bought in the $1,848–$1,905 range, signaling substantial support. If ETH drops below this level, capitulation risks rise, as demand beyond this zone appears much thinner.”In/Out of the Money around price. Source: IntoTheBlockIn financial markets, capitulation refers to investors selling their positions in a panic, leading to a significant price decline and signaling an imminent market bottom before the start of the next uptrend.Related: Bitcoin needs weekly close above $81K to avoid downside ahead of FOMCEther unlikely to see more downside below $1.9k amid growing whale accumulation: analystWhile Ether may see a temporary correction below $1,900, it is unlikely to fall much lower due to the growing whale accumulation, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen.”It does seem likely that if ETH is unable to hold the $1,900 level that we’d see further downside,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:“Supposedly whales have been accumulating, and WLFI also holds substantial amounts of ETH, and regardless, price action has not been favorable.”This behavior was also seen in recent options data where larger players/institutions were positioning themselves for moves in either direction, which shows how uncertain the market is about where ETH is going,” added the analyst.Related: FTX liquidated $1.5B in 3AC assets 2 weeks before hedge fund’s collapseWhale addresses count on Ethereum started staging a recovery since the beginning of 2025.Ethereum: Whale Address Count [Balance >1k ETH]. Source: GlassnodeWhale addresses with at least 1,000 ETH or $1.92 million, rose over 4% year-to-date, from 4,652 addresses on Jan. 1 to over 4,843 addresses on March 14, Glassnode data shows.Magazine: Vitalik on AI apocalypse, LA Times both-sides KKK, LLM grooming: AI Eye
Ether risks another decline below $1,900, which may open up a significant amount of investor demand, which may catalyze Ether’s recovery from its three-month downtrendEther (ETH) price fell over 52% during its three-month downtrend after it peaked above $4,100 on Dec. 16, 2024, TradingView data shows.While another correction below $1,900 is on the horizon, this may unleash significant buying pressure, according to Juan Pellicer, senior research analyst at IntoTheBlock.ETH/USD, 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView“Onchain metrics reveal a robust demand zone for ETH just below $1,900,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:“Historically, around 4.3 million ETH were bought in the $1,848–$1,905 range, signaling substantial support. If ETH drops below this level, capitulation risks rise, as demand beyond this zone appears much thinner.”In/Out of the Money around price. Source: IntoTheBlockIn financial markets, capitulation refers to investors selling their positions in a panic, leading to a significant price decline and signaling an imminent market bottom before the start of the next uptrend.Related: Bitcoin needs weekly close above $81K to avoid downside ahead of FOMCEther unlikely to see more downside below $1,900 amid growing whale accumulation: analystWhile Ether may see a temporary correction below $1,900, it is unlikely to fall much lower due to the growing whale accumulation, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen.“It does seem likely that if ETH is unable to hold the $1,900 level that we’d see further downside,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:“Supposedly whales have been accumulating, and WLFI also holds substantial amounts of ETH, and regardless, price action has not been favorable.”This behavior was also seen in recent options data where larger players/institutions were positioning themselves for moves in either direction, which shows how uncertain the market is about where ETH is going,” added the analyst.Related: FTX liquidated $1.5B in 3AC assets 2 weeks before hedge fund’s collapseWhale addresses count on Ethereum started staging a recovery at the beginning of 2025.Ethereum: Whale Address Count [Balance >1k ETH]. Source: GlassnodeWhale addresses with at least 1,000 ETH or $1.92 million, rose over 4% year-to-date, from 4,652 addresses on Jan. 1 to over 4,843 addresses on March 14, Glassnode data shows.Magazine: Vitalik on AI apocalypse, LA Times both-sides KKK, LLM grooming: AI Eye
Ether risks another decline below $1,900, which may open up a significant amount of investor demand, which may catalyze Ether’s recovery from its three-month downtrendEther (ETH) price fell over 52% during its three-month downtrend after it peaked above $4,100 on Dec. 16, 2024, TradingView data shows.While another correction below $1,900 is on the horizon, this may unleash significant buying pressure, according to Juan Pellicer, senior research analyst at IntoTheBlock.ETH/USD, 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView“Onchain metrics reveal a robust demand zone for ETH just below $1,900,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:“Historically, around 4.3 million ETH were bought in the $1,848–$1,905 range, signaling substantial support. If ETH drops below this level, capitulation risks rise, as demand beyond this zone appears much thinner.”In/Out of the Money around price. Source: IntoTheBlockIn financial markets, capitulation refers to investors selling their positions in a panic, leading to a significant price decline and signaling an imminent market bottom before the start of the next uptrend.Related: Bitcoin needs weekly close above $81K to avoid downside ahead of FOMCEther unlikely to see more downside below $1,900 amid growing whale accumulation: analystWhile Ether may see a temporary correction below $1,900, it is unlikely to fall much lower due to the growing whale accumulation, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen.“It does seem likely that if ETH is unable to hold the $1,900 level that we’d see further downside,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:“Supposedly whales have been accumulating, and WLFI also holds substantial amounts of ETH, and regardless, price action has not been favorable.”This behavior was also seen in recent options data where larger players/institutions were positioning themselves for moves in either direction, which shows how uncertain the market is about where ETH is going,” added the analyst.Related: FTX liquidated $1.5B in 3AC assets 2 weeks before hedge fund’s collapseWhale addresses count on Ethereum started staging a recovery at the beginning of 2025.Ethereum: Whale Address Count [Balance >1k ETH]. Source: GlassnodeWhale addresses with at least 1,000 ETH or $1.92 million, rose over 4% year-to-date, from 4,652 addresses on Jan. 1 to over 4,843 addresses on March 14, Glassnode data shows.Magazine: Vitalik on AI apocalypse, LA Times both-sides KKK, LLM grooming: AI Eye
Ether risks another decline below $1,900, which may open up a significant amount of investor demand, which may catalyze Ether’s recovery from its three-month downtrendEther (ETH) price fell over 52% during its three-month downtrend after it peaked above $4,100 on Dec. 16, 2024, TradingView data shows.While another correction below $1,900 is on the horizon, this may unleash significant buying pressure, according to Juan Pellicer, senior research analyst at IntoTheBlock.ETH/USD, 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView“Onchain metrics reveal a robust demand zone for ETH just below $1,900,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:“Historically, around 4.3 million ETH were bought in the $1,848–$1,905 range, signaling substantial support. If ETH drops below this level, capitulation risks rise, as demand beyond this zone appears much thinner.”In/Out of the Money around price. Source: IntoTheBlockIn financial markets, capitulation refers to investors selling their positions in a panic, leading to a significant price decline and signaling an imminent market bottom before the start of the next uptrend.Related: Bitcoin needs weekly close above $81K to avoid downside ahead of FOMCEther unlikely to see more downside below $1,900 amid growing whale accumulation: analystWhile Ether may see a temporary correction below $1,900, it is unlikely to fall much lower due to the growing whale accumulation, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen.“It does seem likely that if ETH is unable to hold the $1,900 level that we’d see further downside,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:“Supposedly whales have been accumulating, and WLFI also holds substantial amounts of ETH, and regardless, price action has not been favorable.”This behavior was also seen in recent options data where larger players/institutions were positioning themselves for moves in either direction, which shows how uncertain the market is about where ETH is going,” added the analyst.Related: FTX liquidated $1.5B in 3AC assets 2 weeks before hedge fund’s collapseWhale addresses count on Ethereum started staging a recovery at the beginning of 2025.Ethereum: Whale Address Count [Balance >1k ETH]. Source: GlassnodeWhale addresses with at least 1,000 ETH or $1.92 million, rose over 4% year-to-date, from 4,652 addresses on Jan. 1 to over 4,843 addresses on March 14, Glassnode data shows.Magazine: Vitalik on AI apocalypse, LA Times both-sides KKK, LLM grooming: AI Eye
Ether risks another decline below $1,900, which may open up a significant amount of investor demand, which may catalyze Ether’s recovery from its three-month downtrendEther (ETH) price fell over 52% during its three-month downtrend after it peaked above $4,100 on Dec. 16, 2024, TradingView data shows.While another correction below $1,900 is on the horizon, this may unleash significant buying pressure, according to Juan Pellicer, senior research analyst at IntoTheBlock.ETH/USD, 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView“Onchain metrics reveal a robust demand zone for ETH just below $1,900,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:“Historically, around 4.3 million ETH were bought in the $1,848–$1,905 range, signaling substantial support. If ETH drops below this level, capitulation risks rise, as demand beyond this zone appears much thinner.”In/Out of the Money around price. Source: IntoTheBlockIn financial markets, capitulation refers to investors selling their positions in a panic, leading to a significant price decline and signaling an imminent market bottom before the start of the next uptrend.Related: Bitcoin needs weekly close above $81K to avoid downside ahead of FOMCEther unlikely to see more downside below $1,900 amid growing whale accumulation: analystWhile Ether may see a temporary correction below $1,900, it is unlikely to fall much lower due to the growing whale accumulation, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen.“It does seem likely that if ETH is unable to hold the $1,900 level that we’d see further downside,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:“Supposedly whales have been accumulating, and WLFI also holds substantial amounts of ETH, and regardless, price action has not been favorable.”This behavior was also seen in recent options data where larger players/institutions were positioning themselves for moves in either direction, which shows how uncertain the market is about where ETH is going,” added the analyst.Related: FTX liquidated $1.5B in 3AC assets 2 weeks before hedge fund’s collapseWhale addresses count on Ethereum started staging a recovery at the beginning of 2025.Ethereum: Whale Address Count [Balance >1k ETH]. Source: GlassnodeWhale addresses with at least 1,000 ETH or $1.92 million, rose over 4% year-to-date, from 4,652 addresses on Jan. 1 to over 4,843 addresses on March 14, Glassnode data shows.Magazine: Vitalik on AI apocalypse, LA Times both-sides KKK, LLM grooming: AI Eye
As Bitcoin (BTC) struggles amid the latest crypto market pullback – failing to decisively break past the $84,000 resistance – gold (XAU) continues its impressive rally, soaring to a record high of $3,000 per ounce on March 14. Bitcoin Gets Outshined By Gold 2025 has started on a shaky note for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. BTC is down over 10% year-to-date (YTD), falling from approximately $94,000 on January 1 to around $84,000 at the time of writing. On the flip side, gold has surged nearly 13% in the same period. Related Reading: Bitcoin Needs Weekly Close Above This Level To Confirm Market Bottom, Analyst Says Market analyst Northstar shared the following chart on X yesterday, illustrating the BTC-to-gold ratio over the past 12 years. According to the chart, BTC is beginning to break below a critical support line that has held strong for more than a decade. If Bitcoin sustains price action below this support line for several weeks or months, it could signal the end of the current crypto bull run. BTC’s underperformance against gold is also evident in the contrasting capital flows into BTC and gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to data from the World Gold Council, US-based spot gold ETFs have attracted inflows exceeding $6 billion YTD. Globally, spot gold ETFs have seen more than $23 billion in inflows. Meanwhile, data from SoSoValue indicates that US-based spot BTC ETFs have experienced nearly $1.5 billion in net outflows YTD. This sharp contrast in capital movement reflects a shift in investor strategy from risk-on to risk-off assets. Several factors may explain investors’ growing aversion to risk-on assets, including US President Donald Trump’s new trade tariffs, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish monetary policy, and the recent stock market rout. Is The Crypto Bull Run Over? BTC’s underperformance relative to gold casts doubt on the longevity of the current crypto bull market. The total crypto market cap has shed over $600 billion since the start of the year, now standing at approximately $2.8 trillion. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Bottom Around $70,000? Arthur Hayes Says Correction ‘Very Normal’ In A Bull Market Renowned gold advocate Peter Schiff argues that BTC has already been in a bear market for the past three years. In an X post, Schiff stated: One Bitcoin now buys 27.7 ounces of gold. At its peak in 2021, one Bitcoin bought 36.3 ounces of gold. That means that in terms of gold, which is real money, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by 24%. So Bitcoin has been in a stealth bear market for the past three and a half years. That said, positive macroeconomic developments could still turn the tide in BTC’s favor. For example, US inflation appears to be cooling, which may pressure the Fed to pivot toward quantitative easing and boost market liquidity – a potential boon for risk-on assets. Likewise, a breakdown in the US dollar index could reignite optimism for assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. At press time, BTC trades at $84,902, up 3.8% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from X and TradingView.com
Several years back, many in the crypto community described Bitcoin as a “safe-haven” asset. Fewer are calling it that today.A safe-haven asset maintains or increases in value in times of economic stress. It can be a government bond, a currency like the US dollar, a commodity like gold, or even a blue-chip stock. A spreading global tariff war set off by the United States, as well as troubling economic reports, have sent equity markets tumbling, and Bitcoin too — which wasn’t supposed to happen with a “risk off” asset. Bitcoin has suffered compared with gold, too. “While gold prices are up +10%, Bitcoin is down -10% since January 1st,” noted the Kobeissi Letter on March 3. “Crypto is no longer viewed as a safe haven play.” (Bitcoin dropped even further last week.)But some market observers are saying that this wasn’t really unexpected.Bitcoin (white) and gold (yellow) price chart from Dec. 1 to March 13. Source: Bitcoin Counter FlowWas Bitcoin ever a safe haven?“I have never thought of BTC as a ‘safe haven,’” Paul Schatz, founder and president of Heritage Capital, a financial advisory firm, told Cointelegraph. “The magnitude of the moves in BTC are just too great to be put in the haven category although I do believe investors can and should have an allocation to the asset class in general.”“Bitcoin is still a speculative instrument for me, not a safe haven,” Jochen Stanzl, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets (Germany), told Cointelegraph. “A safe haven investment like gold has an intrinsic value that will never be zero. Bitcoin can go down 80% in major corrections. I wouldn’t expect that from gold.”Crypto, including Bitcoin, “has never been a ‘safe haven play’ in my opinion,” Buvaneshwaran Venugopal, assistant professor in the department of finance at the University of Central Florida, told Cointelegraph.But things aren’t always as clear as they first appear, especially when it comes to cryptocurrencies. Related: Bitcoin dominance hits new highs, alts fade: ResearchOne could argue that there are different kinds of safe havens: one for geopolitical events like wars, pandemics, and economic recessions, and another for strictly financial events like bank collapses or a weakening dollar, for instance. The perception of Bitcoin may be changing. Its inclusion in exchange-traded funds issued by major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity in 2024 widened its ownership base, but it may also have changed its “narrative.”It is now more widely seen as a speculative or “risk on” asset like a technology stock.“Bitcoin, and crypto as a whole, have become highly correlated with risky assets and they often move inversely to safe-haven assets, like gold,” Adam Kobeissi, editor-in-chief of the Kobeissi Letter, told Cointelegraph. There’s a lot of uncertainty where BTC is heading, he continued, amid “more institutional involvement and leverage,” and there’s also been a “narrative shift from Bitcoin being viewed as ‘digital gold’ to a more speculative asset.” One might think that its acceptance by traditional finance giants like BlackRock and Fidelity would make Bitcoin’s future more secure, which would boost the safe haven narrative — but that’s not necessarily the case, according to Venugopal:“Big companies piling into BTC does not mean it has become safer. In fact, it means BTC is becoming more like any other asset that institutional investors tend to invest in.”It will be more subject to the usual trading and draw-down strategies that institutional investors use, Venugopal continued. “If anything, BTC is now more correlated to risky assets in the market.” Bitcoin’s dual natureFew deny that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are still subject to big price swings, further propelled recently by growing retail adoption of crypto, particularly from the memecoin craze, “one of the largest crypto-onboarding events in history,” Kobeissi noted. But perhaps that is the wrong thing to focus on.“Safe havens are always longer-term assets, which means that short-term volatility is not a factor in that characteristic,” Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, told Cointelegraph. The big question is whether BTC can hold its value longer-term against fiat currencies, and it’s been able to do that. “The numbers bear out its validity – on just about any four-year timeframe, BTC has outperformed gold and US equities,” said Acheson, adding:“BTC has always had two key narratives: it is a short-term risk asset, sensitive to liquidity expectations and overall sentiment. It is also a longer-term store of value. It can be both, as we are seeing.”Another possibility is that Bitcoin could be a safe haven against some happenings but not others. “I see Bitcoin as a hedge against issues in TradFi,” like the downturn that followed the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank two years ago, and “US Treasury risks,” Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered told Cointelegraph. But for some geopolitical events, Bitcoin might still trade as a risk asset, he said.Related: Is altseason dead? Bitcoin ETFs rewrite crypto investment playbookGold can serve as a hedge against geopolitical issues, like trade wars, while both Bitcoin and gold are hedges against inflation. “So both are useful hedges in a portfolio,” Kendrick added.Others, including Ark Investment’s Cathie Wood, agree that Bitcoin acted as a safe haven during the SVB and Signature bank runs in March 2023. When SVB collapsed on March 10, 2023, Bitcoin’s price was around $20,200, according to CoinGecko. It stood close to $27,400 a week later, roughly 35% higher.BTC price fell on March 10 before bouncing back a week later. Source: CoinGeckoSchatz doesn’t see Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. The events of 2022, when FTX and other crypto firms collapsed and the crypto winter began, “damages that thesis dramatically.” Maybe it’s a hedge against the US dollar and Treasury bonds? “That’s possible, but those scenarios are pretty dark to think about,” Schatz added.No time for over-reactionKobeissi agreed that short-term fluctuations in asset classes “often have minimal relevance over a long-term time period.” Many of Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain positive despite the current drawdown: a pro-crypto US government, the announcement of a US Bitcoin Reserve, and a surge in crypto adoption. The big question for market players is: “What is the next major catalyst for the run to continue?” Kobeissi told Cointelegraph. “This is why markets are pulling back and consolidating: it’s a search for the next major catalyst.”“Ever since macro investors started seeing BTC as a high-volatility, liquidity-sensitive risk asset, it has behaved like one,” added Acheson. Moreover, “it is almost always short-term traders that set the last price, and if they’re rotating out of risk assets, we will see BTC weakness.”Markets are struggling in general. There’s “the specter of renewed inflation and an economic slowdown weighing heavy on expectations” that are also affecting Bitcoin’s price. Acheson further noted:“Given this outlook, and BTC’s dual nature of risk asset and long-term safe haven, I’m surprised it’s not falling further.” Venugopal, for his part, says Bitcoin hasn’t been a short-term hedge or safe haven since 2017. As for the long-term argument that Bitcoin is digital gold because of its 21 million BTC supply cap, that only works “if a large fraction of investors collectively expect Bitcoin to increase in value over time,” and “this may or may not be true.” Magazine: Crypto fans are obsessed with longevity and biohacking: Here’s why
Several years back, many in the crypto community described Bitcoin as a “safe-haven” asset. Fewer are calling it that today.A safe-haven asset maintains or increases in value in times of economic stress. It can be a government bond, a currency like the US dollar, a commodity like gold, or even a blue-chip stock. A spreading global tariff war set off by the United States, as well as troubling economic reports, have sent equity markets tumbling, and Bitcoin too — which wasn’t supposed to happen with a “risk off” asset. Bitcoin has suffered compared with gold, too. “While gold prices are up +10%, Bitcoin is down -10% since January 1st,” noted the Kobeissi Letter on March 3. “Crypto is no longer viewed as a safe haven play.” (Bitcoin dropped even further last week.)But some market observers are saying that this wasn’t really unexpected.Bitcoin (white) and gold (yellow) price chart from Dec. 1 to March 13. Source: Bitcoin Counter FlowWas Bitcoin ever a safe haven?“I have never thought of BTC as a ‘safe haven,’” Paul Schatz, founder and president of Heritage Capital, a financial advisory firm, told Cointelegraph. “The magnitude of the moves in BTC are just too great to be put in the haven category although I do believe investors can and should have an allocation to the asset class in general.”“Bitcoin is still a speculative instrument for me, not a safe haven,” Jochen Stanzl, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets (Germany), told Cointelegraph. “A safe haven investment like gold has an intrinsic value that will never be zero. Bitcoin can go down 80% in major corrections. I wouldn’t expect that from gold.”Crypto, including Bitcoin, “has never been a ‘safe haven play’ in my opinion,” Buvaneshwaran Venugopal, assistant professor in the department of finance at the University of Central Florida, told Cointelegraph.But things aren’t always as clear as they first appear, especially when it comes to cryptocurrencies. Related: Bitcoin dominance hits new highs, alts fade: ResearchOne could argue that there are different kinds of safe havens: one for geopolitical events like wars, pandemics, and economic recessions, and another for strictly financial events like bank collapses or a weakening dollar, for instance. The perception of Bitcoin may be changing. Its inclusion in exchange-traded funds issued by major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity in 2024 widened its ownership base, but it may also have changed its “narrative.”It is now more widely seen as a speculative or “risk on” asset like a technology stock.“Bitcoin, and crypto as a whole, have become highly correlated with risky assets and they often move inversely to safe-haven assets, like gold,” Adam Kobeissi, editor-in-chief of the Kobeissi Letter, told Cointelegraph. There’s a lot of uncertainty where BTC is heading, he continued, amid “more institutional involvement and leverage,” and there’s also been a “narrative shift from Bitcoin being viewed as ‘digital gold’ to a more speculative asset.” One might think that its acceptance by traditional finance giants like BlackRock and Fidelity would make Bitcoin’s future more secure, which would boost the safe haven narrative — but that’s not necessarily the case, according to Venugopal:“Big companies piling into BTC does not mean it has become safer. In fact, it means BTC is becoming more like any other asset that institutional investors tend to invest in.”It will be more subject to the usual trading and draw-down strategies that institutional investors use, Venugopal continued. “If anything, BTC is now more correlated to risky assets in the market.” Bitcoin’s dual natureFew deny that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are still subject to big price swings, further propelled recently by growing retail adoption of crypto, particularly from the memecoin craze, “one of the largest crypto-onboarding events in history,” Kobeissi noted. But perhaps that is the wrong thing to focus on.“Safe havens are always longer-term assets, which means that short-term volatility is not a factor in that characteristic,” Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, told Cointelegraph. The big question is whether BTC can hold its value longer-term against fiat currencies, and it’s been able to do that. “The numbers bear out its validity – on just about any four-year timeframe, BTC has outperformed gold and US equities,” said Acheson, adding:“BTC has always had two key narratives: it is a short-term risk asset, sensitive to liquidity expectations and overall sentiment. It is also a longer-term store of value. It can be both, as we are seeing.”Another possibility is that Bitcoin could be a safe haven against some happenings but not others. “I see Bitcoin as a hedge against issues in TradFi,” like the downturn that followed the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank two years ago, and “US Treasury risks,” Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered told Cointelegraph. But for some geopolitical events, Bitcoin might still trade as a risk asset, he said.Related: Is altseason dead? Bitcoin ETFs rewrite crypto investment playbookGold can serve as a hedge against geopolitical issues, like trade wars, while both Bitcoin and gold are hedges against inflation. “So both are useful hedges in a portfolio,” Kendrick added.Others, including Ark Investment’s Cathie Wood, agree that Bitcoin acted as a safe haven during the SVB and Signature bank runs in March 2023. When SVB collapsed on March 10, 2023, Bitcoin’s price was around $20,200, according to CoinGecko. It stood close to $27,400 a week later, roughly 35% higher.BTC price fell on March 10 before bouncing back a week later. Source: CoinGeckoSchatz doesn’t see Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. The events of 2022, when FTX and other crypto firms collapsed and the crypto winter began, “damages that thesis dramatically.” Maybe it’s a hedge against the US dollar and Treasury bonds? “That’s possible, but those scenarios are pretty dark to think about,” Schatz added.No time for over-reactionKobeissi agreed that short-term fluctuations in asset classes “often have minimal relevance over a long-term time period.” Many of Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain positive despite the current drawdown: a pro-crypto US government, the announcement of a US Bitcoin Reserve, and a surge in crypto adoption. The big question for market players is: “What is the next major catalyst for the run to continue?” Kobeissi told Cointelegraph. “This is why markets are pulling back and consolidating: it’s a search for the next major catalyst.”“Ever since macro investors started seeing BTC as a high-volatility, liquidity-sensitive risk asset, it has behaved like one,” added Acheson. Moreover, “it is almost always short-term traders that set the last price, and if they’re rotating out of risk assets, we will see BTC weakness.”Markets are struggling in general. There’s “the specter of renewed inflation and an economic slowdown weighing heavy on expectations” that are also affecting Bitcoin’s price. Acheson further noted:“Given this outlook, and BTC’s dual nature of risk asset and long-term safe haven, I’m surprised it’s not falling further.” Venugopal, for his part, says Bitcoin hasn’t been a short-term hedge or safe haven since 2017. As for the long-term argument that Bitcoin is digital gold because of its 21 million BTC supply cap, that only works “if a large fraction of investors collectively expect Bitcoin to increase in value over time,” and “this may or may not be true.” Magazine: Crypto fans are obsessed with longevity and biohacking: Here’s why
Several years back, many in the crypto community described Bitcoin as a “safe-haven” asset. Fewer are calling it that today.A safe-haven asset maintains or increases in value in times of economic stress. It can be a government bond, a currency like the US dollar, a commodity like gold, or even a blue-chip stock. A spreading global tariff war set off by the United States, as well as troubling economic reports, have sent equity markets tumbling, and Bitcoin too — which wasn’t supposed to happen with a “risk off” asset. Bitcoin has suffered compared with gold, too. “While gold prices are up +10%, Bitcoin is down -10% since January 1st,” noted the Kobeissi Letter on March 3. “Crypto is no longer viewed as a safe haven play.” (Bitcoin dropped even further last week.)But some market observers are saying that this wasn’t really unexpected.Bitcoin (white) and gold (yellow) price chart from Dec. 1 to March 13. Source: Bitcoin Counter FlowWas Bitcoin ever a safe haven?“I have never thought of BTC as a ‘safe haven,’” Paul Schatz, founder and president of Heritage Capital, a financial advisory firm, told Cointelegraph. “The magnitude of the moves in BTC are just too great to be put in the haven category although I do believe investors can and should have an allocation to the asset class in general.”“Bitcoin is still a speculative instrument for me, not a safe haven,” Jochen Stanzl, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets (Germany), told Cointelegraph. “A safe haven investment like gold has an intrinsic value that will never be zero. Bitcoin can go down 80% in major corrections. I wouldn’t expect that from gold.”Crypto, including Bitcoin, “has never been a ‘safe haven play’ in my opinion,” Buvaneshwaran Venugopal, assistant professor in the department of finance at the University of Central Florida, told Cointelegraph.But things aren’t always as clear as they first appear, especially when it comes to cryptocurrencies. Related: Bitcoin dominance hits new highs, alts fade: ResearchOne could argue that there are different kinds of safe havens: one for geopolitical events like wars, pandemics, and economic recessions, and another for strictly financial events like bank collapses or a weakening dollar, for instance. The perception of Bitcoin may be changing. Its inclusion in exchange-traded funds issued by major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity in 2024 widened its ownership base, but it may also have changed its “narrative.”It is now more widely seen as a speculative or “risk on” asset like a technology stock.“Bitcoin, and crypto as a whole, have become highly correlated with risky assets and they often move inversely to safe-haven assets, like gold,” Adam Kobeissi, editor-in-chief of the Kobeissi Letter, told Cointelegraph. There’s a lot of uncertainty where BTC is heading, he continued, amid “more institutional involvement and leverage,” and there’s also been a “narrative shift from Bitcoin being viewed as ‘digital gold’ to a more speculative asset.” One might think that its acceptance by traditional finance giants like BlackRock and Fidelity would make Bitcoin’s future more secure, which would boost the safe haven narrative — but that’s not necessarily the case, according to Venugopal:“Big companies piling into BTC does not mean it has become safer. In fact, it means BTC is becoming more like any other asset that institutional investors tend to invest in.”It will be more subject to the usual trading and draw-down strategies that institutional investors use, Venugopal continued. “If anything, BTC is now more correlated to risky assets in the market.” Bitcoin’s dual natureFew deny that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are still subject to big price swings, further propelled recently by growing retail adoption of crypto, particularly from the memecoin craze, “one of the largest crypto-onboarding events in history,” Kobeissi noted. But perhaps that is the wrong thing to focus on.“Safe havens are always longer-term assets, which means that short-term volatility is not a factor in that characteristic,” Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, told Cointelegraph. The big question is whether BTC can hold its value longer-term against fiat currencies, and it’s been able to do that. “The numbers bear out its validity – on just about any four-year timeframe, BTC has outperformed gold and US equities,” said Acheson, adding:“BTC has always had two key narratives: it is a short-term risk asset, sensitive to liquidity expectations and overall sentiment. It is also a longer-term store of value. It can be both, as we are seeing.”Another possibility is that Bitcoin could be a safe haven against some happenings but not others. “I see Bitcoin as a hedge against issues in TradFi,” like the downturn that followed the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank two years ago, and “US Treasury risks,” Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered told Cointelegraph. But for some geopolitical events, Bitcoin might still trade as a risk asset, he said.Related: Is altseason dead? Bitcoin ETFs rewrite crypto investment playbookGold can serve as a hedge against geopolitical issues, like trade wars, while both Bitcoin and gold are hedges against inflation. “So both are useful hedges in a portfolio,” Kendrick added.Others, including Ark Investment’s Cathie Wood, agree that Bitcoin acted as a safe haven during the SVB and Signature bank runs in March 2023. When SVB collapsed on March 10, 2023, Bitcoin’s price was around $20,200, according to CoinGecko. It stood close to $27,400 a week later, roughly 35% higher.BTC price fell on March 10 before bouncing back a week later. Source: CoinGeckoSchatz doesn’t see Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. The events of 2022, when FTX and other crypto firms collapsed and the crypto winter began, “damages that thesis dramatically.” Maybe it’s a hedge against the US dollar and Treasury bonds? “That’s possible, but those scenarios are pretty dark to think about,” Schatz added.No time for over-reactionKobeissi agreed that short-term fluctuations in asset classes “often have minimal relevance over a long-term time period.” Many of Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain positive despite the current drawdown: a pro-crypto US government, the announcement of a US Bitcoin Reserve, and a surge in crypto adoption. The big question for market players is: “What is the next major catalyst for the run to continue?” Kobeissi told Cointelegraph. “This is why markets are pulling back and consolidating: it’s a search for the next major catalyst.”“Ever since macro investors started seeing BTC as a high-volatility, liquidity-sensitive risk asset, it has behaved like one,” added Acheson. Moreover, “it is almost always short-term traders that set the last price, and if they’re rotating out of risk assets, we will see BTC weakness.”Markets are struggling in general. There’s “the specter of renewed inflation and an economic slowdown weighing heavy on expectations” that are also affecting Bitcoin’s price. Acheson further noted:“Given this outlook, and BTC’s dual nature of risk asset and long-term safe haven, I’m surprised it’s not falling further.” Venugopal, for his part, says Bitcoin hasn’t been a short-term hedge or safe haven since 2017. As for the long-term argument that Bitcoin is digital gold because of its 21 million BTC supply cap, that only works “if a large fraction of investors collectively expect Bitcoin to increase in value over time,” and “this may or may not be true.” Magazine: Crypto fans are obsessed with longevity and biohacking: Here’s why
