Twitter is now providing price charts with search results for major cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin and ether. This new feature is “one of many product improvements coming to financial Twitter,” said Elon Musk, owner of the social media platform. Twitter Launches Price Chart Feature Twitter announced in a series of tweets Wednesday that it is […]
Bitcoin is stuck at its current levels, but the market might begin moving again before 2023 makes its entry. The key factors shaping global markets are changing, and cryptocurrencies are bound to follow the general trend into the new year. Related Reading: Bitcoin Correction Soon? MVRV Triple Ribbon Approaches Bearish Cross As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $16,800 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours. On higher timeframes, the cryptocurrency records a 6% loss. Other assets in the crypto top 10 by market capitalization are moving in tandem with BTC and record losses in this period. Bitcoin Investors Should Brace For Incoming Volatility Bitcoin and the crypto market are poised for volatile days during the holiday season. From now until the end of the year, markets will see less trading volume, making assets susceptible to sudden price movements. According to a report from crypto exchange Bitfinex, the number of active Bitcoin addresses is declining. This number has been trending to the downside across 2022. The chart below shows that the number of daily active addresses averaged 921,445 during this period, representing a decline of 1.1 million compared to 2021. This reduction in activity will contribute to the spike in volatility. The last week of the year has seen a steeper decline in activity, and trading volume, since 2013. In addition, the downside action Data since 2013 suggests that there is always a decline of 3-4 percent in the number of daily active addresses in the last week of the year compared to the previous month. Aside from the decline in trading volumes, the fall in DAA could also correspond to reduced mining operations as miners’ activity corresponds to BTC’s most significant on-chain movements. Finding Direction For The BTC Price According to the report, one metric is vital to forecast BTC’s direction amid higher volatility. This metric is the Monthly Realised Volatility, which measures what has happened in the market over the past 30 days. This metric is at its lowest “since Q3 of 2022, just before the last bull run.” As seen in the chart below, each time Monthly Realised Volatility reached similar levels, the Bitcoin price trends to the upside over the coming months. Related Reading: Tron Shows Bullish Energy And Attracts Investors To Buy TRX The current trend in the market is to the downside, but many experts have begun shifting their predictions. As NewsBTC reported yesterday, a different report claims the long-term bullish case for Bitcoin strengthened: (…) the value proposition for bitcoin has only strengthened this year as sovereign currencies around the world have shown signs of stress and central banks continue to grapple with policy credibility.
On-chain data shows a Bitcoin ratio has hit the lowest value since February 2019, something that may suggest the bottom could be near for the current cycle. Bitcoin SOPR Ratio Hits Lows Not Seen Since 4 Years Ago As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the SOPR Ratio has a value of just 0.53 right now. The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us whether Bitcoin investors as a whole are selling at a profit or at a loss currently. There are two main investor groups in the BTC market, the “short-term holders” (STHs) and the “long-term holders” (LTHs). STHs include all holders that have been holding onto their coins for less than 155 days, while LTHs are investors who have been keeping their coins dormant for longer than this threshold amount. Now, there is a metric called the “SOPR Ratio” that measures the ratio between the SOPR values for the LTHs and the STHs. When this indicator has a value greater than 1, it means the LTHs are realizing more profits than the STHs right now. On the other hand, values below 1 suggest STHs have been raking in a higher amount of profits. Related Reading: Altcoin Indexes Take Beating As Investors Flip Alts For Bitcoin Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SOPR Ratio over the course of the entire history of the cryptocurrency: The value of the metric seems to have declined recently | Source: CryptoQuant As the above graph highlights, the Bitcoin SOPR Ratio has historically gone below a value of 1 during bear markets. The reason behind this is that the holders who bought during the preceding bull run slowly mature into LTHs as a bear takes hold, while the STH cohort starts being made up of investors who bought at the lower, bear-market prices. Related Reading: XRP Accumulation: Key Sharks And Whales Group Hits All-Time High Holdings During bears, both holder groups generally realize losses as a whole, but since STHs acquire their coins at relatively lower prices, their losses are lesser. The reverse happens in bull runs, as the LTHs who bought at the cycle lows amass large profits, and thus the SOPR Ratio attains values higher than 1. Recently, the indicator has dropped to a value of 0.53, which suggests large-scale capitulation from the LTHs. The current value is the lowest since February 2019, around when the lows of the previous cycle were observed. This could hint that the bottom for the current bear market may also be near, if not already in. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $16,800, down 4% in the last week. Looks like BTC has shown boring price action in the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Jievani Weerasinghe on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
With Christmas almost here, hopes for a Santa Claus rally in Bitcoin and the rest of crypto are fading fast. But what exactly is the phenomenon, and how often has the Christmas miracle occurred in the past? What’s A Santa Claus Rally? The Most-Wished For Gift By Bitcoin Bulls A Santa Claus rally is defined as a “calendar effect” that occurs right around the holidays. According to Investopedia, there’s some slight disagreement over the exact timing of a Santa Claus rally. One camp claims its the lead up to Christmas where stock holders get an early present, while the other side states its the post-Christmas week leading into January 2nd. The idea behind the rally is the same: investors are suddenly euphoric due to the joyfulness of the holiday season, are considering year-end tax-related repositioning, and often have fresh Christmas bonuses to spend. The low-volume and liquidity holiday market conditions allow prices to move more swiftly, like Dasher, Dancer, Prancer, and Vixen through the snowy night sky. Related Reading: No Santa For Cryptos This Year: Large Cap Coins Touch December Lows Investopedia further concludes that there isn’t much validity to the idea behind the Santa Claus rally when analyzing S&P 500 returns during this period. But what about Bitcoin and crypto, where retail investors dominate the market and trade 24/7 – even on Christmas Day? The complete history of holiday seasons in crypto | BTCUSD on TradingView.com The Scrooge Effect: Bears Say Bah Humbug To Possible Crypto Rally The above chart depicts the crypto version of the Santa Claus rally, taking into consideration both the weeks before and after the annual holiday. At only a mere few cents, a breakout Christmas rally sustained until Bitcoin reached $40 for the first time. In 2011, December price action was more red than green. The next Santa Claus rally kept delivering gifts for crypto holders for nearly an entire year, until December 2013 struck and one of the worst downtrends on record followed all the way through until December 2014. Bitcoin reached its final bear market bottom back then only days away from Christmas. The following two Christmases in 2015 and 2016 were merry and bright for Bitcoin bulls. But December 2017 euphoria around Christmas-time turned out to be the top, resulting in yet another bear market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Monthly Momentum Reaches Worst On Record In 2018, we’ve marked December in blue as the most neutral of all holiday price action. Although Bitcoin had fallen prior, it had already bottomed, and in the months following began a new bull run. It’s tough to call this price action bullish or bearish. Much like the bull market in 2015 and 2016 saw back to back green seasons, so did crypto investors in December 2019 and December 2020. In fact, December 2020 gave BTC a new all-time high – the first since December 2017. More all-time highs were made in 2021, but by December, it was back to a brutal downtrend for crypto. Here we are one year later, and the chart above does give us some clues about what might happen next. During the two largest bear markets, Bitcoin suffered from Scrooge-like behavior in the crypto industry two Decembers in a row. While we dubbed the second December in the second bear market neutral, it also wasn’t bullish by any stretch. Considering this pattern, this December has a cyclical rhythm that could suggest yet another lump of coal for investors this year. However, when looking at the data alone, there’s roughly a 50/50 chance that this holiday season is something to celebrate across crypto. Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
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Inflation has fueled crypto growth in the region, stimulating asset tokenization and remittance infrastructure development.
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Unless they are mature and open minded, can handle an intellectual conversation and even spend time on the subject for more than 10 hours When I found out about bitcoin in 2013 and invested in it – I became fascinated by it, like others I would share my thoughts on it to friends and family.…
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