How long will the bullrun last? Lets use the past to predict the future
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Its been almost a year sinds the bitcoin halving. The halving has always been the start of the bullrun and this time, it wasnt any different. Technical analyst Rekt Capital looks at when the bull run might reach its peak. To look when bitcoin will have his peak in this bullrun, we have to look back to see what happend the last couple of times. Important dates are the BTC halvings. The analysis uses the bottom before the bullrun and the peak in the bullrun. Based on these two dates, Rekt Capital try's to predict the future. Here is the anaylsis: Bitcoin halving 1; 28 november 2012: How many days did Bitcoin bottom before its first-ever halving? 378 days. How many days did Bitcoin top out after its first-ever halving? 364 days. It took roughly the same amount of time for Bitcoin to bottom prior to halving #1 (378 days) as it took for Bitcoin to rally before topping out after its second post-Halving #1 Market Cycle (364 days). Bitcoin halving 2; July 9 2016: How many days did Bitcoin bottom before its first-ever halving? 546 days. How many days did Bitcoin top out after its second halving? 518 days. It took the same amount of time for Bitcoin to bottom prior to halving (546 days) as it took for Bitcoin to rally before topping out after its second post-halving market cycle (518 days). This means based on the last 2 bullruns: It takes approximately the same amount of time for Bitcoin to bottom prior to the halving event as it takes to peak after the halving event. Bitcoin halving 3; 18 may 2020: Conclusion: Bitcoin bottomed 511 days before halving 3. So if it takes BTC 511 days after the halving to peak: that means that Bitcoin is likely to top out in early Q4, 2021. Specifically: October 2021. Ofcourse every bullrun is a bit different. Based on the analysis we still have a major peak to get in the next couple of months. But it wont last till the end of the year. Stay safe 🙂 submitted by /u/steavus |
