I made an exit strategy calculator based on the normal distribution and it’s free for all to use.
TLDR: You can use the link to download a template excel file that allows you to input profit taking levels based on your risk and predicted bitcoin, ethereum etc price that you give with a 95% confidence interval.
Google Docs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ldQFAnK1VQODfIZUI_mfm3368V2GGAcaxsii_QtEpcs/edit?usp=sharing
Many of us here don't yet have a solid exit strategy so I have devised a model based on the normal distribution. Even between institutions, no one can decide the predicted bitcoin price for the end of this bull cycle, so giving users a 95% confidence interval for where they believe bitcoin will peak is crucial.
Users input their predicted bitcoin price (or equivalent for each asset) and their expected 95% confidence interval. You can then choose at which risk levels you want to take profits, e.g. I want to sell 10% when the probability of being at peak price is 50%, another 10% at probability of peak price being 60%, etc.
Using probability, the total expected sales of the asset based on the prices you sell at and how much, allow us to calculate both a cash profit/loss (not including leftover crypto which hasn't been sold). To add further value, users can predict what % the market will crash to (set to 40% as default). From this, a total P/L can then be calculated, including both realised value (from crypto sold) and crypto left over after the crash.
Hope this is helpful to some of those looking for an exit strategy based on probability and risk, rather than psychological many 'crypto influencers' suggest.
Feel free to leave comments for potential improvement and other tools you may like to see.