When will the bull market end? A Simple Tool for Measuring a BTC Bull Run: The 200 Week Moving Average

I've been asked several times by friends and family members how long this BTC bull cycle will last. Let me first say that I have no idea, and any answers anyone gives you is just a guess. However, we can use historical data to give us an idea of when the market is getting overheated, and one of my favorite historical data sets is the BTC 200 week moving average.

Historically, monthly percentage increase in the 200 week moving average for BTC has ranged from 0% to 16%. During a bull run up, the increase slowly rises, until it peaks in the mid-teens, and then the market reverses into a bear cycle. This has been true for the last 2 bull cycles, and seems to be holding true for this cycle (so far).

The current BTC 200 week moving average is roughly around 10-11% depending on market prices. That means we technically may have about 2 months of this bull cycle left (possibly more, possibly less) if we follow historical trends, and during that time BTC may increase by 2-4X. Plan accordingly and good luck.

None of this is a guarantee, nor is it financial advice.